Question

As Nipah virus spread from September 1998 through May 1999 in Malaysia, 265 patients were diagnosed with encephalitis, and 105 of these patients died. An additional 110 individuals were found to have antibodies to Nipah virus but did not have any clinical symptoms. Of those infected, 224 were from Port Dickson, which has a population of about 97,800 people. 1. Using this information and the calculations described in the “Student Reading” handout, calculate the following values for this Nipah outbreak: (1pt each) a. Incidence in Port Dickson, Malaysia: ____ new cases/______ people in the population/_____ months b. Prevalence in Port Dickson, Malaysia: ___________% c. Morbidity nationwide for Malaysia: ___________% d. Mortality nationwide for Malaysia: ____________% e. Case fatality ratio nationwide for Malaysia: _____________% 2. The R0 of Nipah virus is estimated to be 0.48. Based on this information, make a claim about whether the outbreak in Malaysia is likely to have become an epidemic.

Answer 1

Answer:

a. Incidence in Port Dickson, Malaysia: _224___ new cases/____97800__ people in the population/__9___ months

b. Prevalence in Port Dickson, Malaysia: ______0.23_____%

Explaination : (224 cases/97800 people = 0.0023 *100 = 0.23%)

c. Morbidity nationwide for Malaysia: __71_________%

Explaination :  (265 cases/(265 symptomatic cases + 110 asymptomatic cases) = 0.71 *100 = 71%)

d. Mortality nationwide for Malaysia: _________28___%

Explaination : (105 deaths/(265 symptomatic cases + 110 asymptomatic cases) = 0.28 *100 = 28%)

e. Case fatality ratio nationwide for Malaysia: _____40________%

   Explaination :   (105 deaths/265 symptomatic = 0.40 = 40%)

2. The R0 of Nipah virus is estimated to be 0.48. Based on this information, make a claim about whether the outbreak in Malaysia is likely to have become an epidemic.

Answer: Yes, the outbreak in Malaysia is likely to have become an epidemic because of its R0 value is less than 1; every infected person infects 0.48 person.(less than one new person)