The capital budgeting process is one
of the most important part of Investment decision making process.
The company uses different types of approach to determine the
capital budgeting decision like net present value method, pay back
period, Discounted pay back period, accounting rate of return,
internal rate of return. Each of these methoods have some advantage
over the others and some disadvantage over the other but in recent
years due to the advancement in technology, these same approach can
be applied in slightly better way to get the outcome. Some of the
changes that companies have used in capital bufgeting techniques
are:
- Sensitivity analysis : Since the
entire capital budgeting process is based on assumption,
sensitivity analysis help in looking at the output while tweaking
one variable at a time. It helps you analyze if one variable is
changed in the entire process what is the outcome going to be. For
example if we change the Interest rate assumption what is the
outcome of the project?
- Scenario analysis : Scenario
analysis is changing the assumption behind more than one variable
and changing the variable input and then analysing the output. It
helps in assessing what if many variables are changed. For example
lets suppose we change the interest rate assumptio as well as cash
flow estimation, is the project still financially viable.
- Monte carlo simulation : A monte
carlo simulation method that is used to model the probability of
different outcomes. It helps in understanding the risk associated
with differnt projects and compare the expected return with
that.
- What if analysis : There are very
small differences between sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis
and what if analysis. What if analysis basically changes the the
variable input and then compares the outcome. It can be performed
in excel. What if analysis is basically dependednt on the user how
he wants to change the variable input.