Question

Discuss how the statistical definitions of “probability,” “experiment,” “outcome,” and “event” differ from the way most people use these terms in everyday life.  How would most non-statisticians describe the probability of an event happening if the statistical likelihood of it occurring was .75?

Answer 1

we usually think of probability as a number that describes the likelihood of some event occurring, which ranges from zero (impossibility) to one (certainty). Sometimes probabilities will instead be expressed in percentages, which range from zero to one hundred, as when the weather forecast predicts a twenty percent chance of rain today. In each case, these numbers are expressing how likely that particular event is, ranging from absolutely impossible to absolutely certain.

An experiment is any activity that produces or observes an outcome. Examples are flipping a coin, rolling a 6-sided die, or trying a new route to work to see if it’s faster than the old route.

An event is a subset of the sample space. In principle it could be one or more of possible outcomes in the sample space, but here we will focus primarily on elementary events which consist of exactly one possible outcome. For example, this could be obtaining heads in a single coin flip, rolling a 4 on a throw of the die, or taking 21 minutes to get home by the new route.

The result of a random experiment will be called an Outcome .

Probability is also used informally in day to day life. We daily come across the sentenseces like:

1. Possibly, it will rain to-night.

2. there is a high chance of my getting the jb next month.

3. this year demand for the product is likely to exceed that of the last year.

How would most non-statisticians describe the probability of an event happening if the statistical likelihood of it occurring was .75?

Answer: As the election is a one time event, it is not an experiment that can be repeated. So exactly what does the statement "Hillary has a 75% chance of winning" technically mean? I am seeking a statistically correct definition not an intuitive or conceptual one.