Question

Describe how we can use Markov analysis to make future predictions.

200-250 word response

Answer 1

The Markov analysis method involves predicting future outcomes based on the current situation of the variable.Once the chances of future actions at every state area unit determined, a call tree will be drawn. Then, the result will be calculated, given the current state of a variable.

Eg Lets assume you want to how many phones are going to be defective off the line and you collected the reports from the past ten months The drawback is that the more you go back in past the more difficult the probability calculation gets.Markov simplifies this by Markov Model which means the probability that an event will happen, given n recent events, is equal to the probability that such an event will happen given just the most recent event.

Either way, the Markov Assumption means that you don’t go too way back in past to predict the next outcome. you'll simply use the most recent event. This is known as the first-order Markov prediction as you’re considering solely the last event to predict the long-run event.

A second-order Markov prediction includes simply the last 2 events that happen in sequence. From the equation simply given, the subsequent wide used equation may be derived:

This equation focuses to calculate the chance that some events can happen in sequence: event1 then event2, and so on. This will be calculated by multiplying the likelihood of every event by a consequent event within the sequence.