In: Statistics and Probability
Table 1 below reports the present values (in £ million) of different investment projects at different interest rates in the future.
Table 1. Project NPVs.
Future interest rate | |||||||
Project | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
A | 76.21 | 72.26 | 68.61 | 65.23 | 62.09 | 59.18 | 56.48 |
B | 78.81 | 74.2 | 69.98 | 66.12 | 62.57 | 59.31 | 56.31 |
C | 80.36 | 75.41 | 70.9 | 66.78 | 63.03 | 59.59 | 56.44 |
D | 78.81 | 74.33 | 70.22 | 66.44 | 62.97 | 59.76 | 56.81 |
E | 84.24 | 77.18 | 71.01 | 65.58 | 60.79 | 56.55 | 52.78 |
probability | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Calculate the expected present value of each project. Which project maximises the expected value? Would you choose to proceed with this one?
Calculate the maximin and the maximax criteria.
Calculate the minimax regret criterion. When would this criterion be applied?
Calculate the expected value of perfect information. What does it describe?