In: Statistics and Probability
Using the American presidential election data from 1948-2016 (N
= 18) on the percentage of the major 2-
party vote received by the presidential candidate of the incumbent
party, Incvte2, and the percentage
change in real GDP during the 12 months prior to the election,
"Pcrgdp", you find that the correlation
coefficient for Incvte2 and Pcrgdp is 0.535.
a) What percentage of the variation in "Incvte2" is attributable to
variation in "Pcrgdp"? [6 points]
b) Test the null hypothesis of statistical independence between
"Incvte2" and "Pcrgdp" at the 1%
significance level.
We know the coefficient of determination measures the total variation between the variables.