In: Finance
What should the stock price be if the current dividend is $1.00, the required return is 15%, the growth rates years 1-3 are 6%, 8%, 9%. and 6% from year 4 on?
Calculation of the stock price :-
Stock price means present value of all cash inflows from the stock.
Here growth is are non constant upto 3 years. From the year 4 growth rate is constant.
So we calculate the present value of all dividend from year 4 onwards is calculated at end of the year 3 that is terminal value of dividends.
Year | growth rate | dividend | Calculation |
1 | 6% | $1.06000000 | 1 * 1.06 |
2 | 8% | $1.14480000 | 1.06 * 1.08 |
3 | 9% | $1.24783200 | 1.1448*1.09 |
4 | 6% | $1.32270192 | 1.247832 * 1.06 |
Terminal value of dividends from year 4 onwards at end of the year 3 = Year 4 dividend / (r - g)
year 4 dividend = 1.32270192 per share
r = required rate of return = 15%
g= growth rate forever from year 4 = 6%
= 1.32270192 / ( 0.15 - 0.06)
Terminal value at end of year 3 = $ 14.696688
Calculation of the stock price :-
years | Cash inflows | terminal value | Total cash inflows | PVF@15% | PV |
1 | $1.06000000 | $1.06000000 | 0.869565 | $0.921739130434783 | |
2 | $1.14480000 | $1.14480000 | 0.756144 | $0.865633270321361 | |
3 | $1.24783200 | 14.696688 | $15.94452000 | 0.657516 | $10.483780718336500 |
Stock price | $12.271153119092600 | ||||
Stock price (Round off to two decimals) | $12.27 |