Question

What will happen to the world of 2050, if we follow a “business as usual” scenario in terms of fossil fuel consumption? Why does David Wallace Wells think “it's time to panic.”

Answer 1

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Abstract

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. Most of this growth comes from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and this growth is focused in regions where strong economic growth is driving demand, particularly in Asia.

EIA’s IEO2019 assesses long-term world energy markets for 16 regions of the world, divided according to OECD and non-OECD membership. Projections for the United States in IEO2019 are consistent with those released in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.

The industrial sector, which includes refining, mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, accounts for the largest share of energy consumption of any end-use sector—more than half of end-use energy consumption throughout the projection period. World industrial sector energy use increases by more than 30% between 2018 and 2050 as consumption of goods increases. By 2050, global industrial energy consumption reaches about 315 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).

Transportation energy consumption increases by nearly 40% between 2018 and 2050. This increase is largely driven by non-OECD countries, where transportation energy consumption increases nearly 80% between 2018 and 2050. Energy consumption for both personal travel and freight movement grows in these countries much more rapidly than in many OECD countries.

Energy consumed in the buildings sector, which includes residential and commercial structures, increases by 65% between 2018 and 2050, from 91 quadrillion to 139 quadrillion Btu. Rising income, urbanization, and increased access to electricity lead to rising demand for energy.

Explaination

Fossil fuels did not reach this dominant position by chance. The global energy system looks like it does today because oil, coal and natural gas are highly practical and abundant energy carriers conveniently packaged in liquid, solid and gaseous states. They can be easily stored, traded internationally, and deployed on demand over a wide range of applications.

Fossil fuels are also very cheap. For example, the projected breakeven oil costs in 2030 as determined by Wood Mackenzie are shown below. The average barrel of oil can be produced at about $30, which translates to about $18/MWh, and this cost will drop further when we eventually manage to start reducing fossil fuel demand. In comparison, the average global cost of onshore wind and solar PV in 2018 were $56/MWh and $85/MWh, respectively, according to IRENA.

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