In: Finance
Xonics Graphics, Inc., is evaluating a new technology for its reproduction equipment. The
technology will have a three-year life, will cost $1,000, and will have an impact on cash
flows that is subject to risk. Management estimates that there is a fifty-fifty chance that the
technology will either save the company $1,000 in the first year or save it nothing at all. If
nothing at all, savings in the last two years would be zero as well. Even here there is some
possibility that in the second year an additional outlay of $300 would be required to
convert back to the original process, for the new technology may decrease efficiency.
Management attaches a 40 percent probability to this occurrence if the new technology
“bombs out” in the first year. If the technology proves itself in the first year, it is felt that
second-year cash flows will be $1,800, $1,400, and $1,000, with probabilities of 0.20, 0.60,
and 0.20, respectively. In the third year, cash flows are expected to be either $200 greater
or $200 less than the cash flow in period 2, with an equal chance of occurrence. (Again,
these cash flows depend on the cash flow in period 1 being $1,000.)
Book: fundamentals-of-Financial Management_van-horne_wachowicz_13ed