Question

I only need question C answered, but I provided the rest of the worksheet to use as reference in order to do so.

Q1. Jamie wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in operations management next semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. He has accumulated the following enrollment data for the past six semesters:

SEMESTER	STUDENTS ENROLLED IN OM
1	270
2	310
3	250
4	290
5	370
6	410

a (2 pts). Compute a three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 7 (Model a) (Use two decimals).

SEMESTER	Three-semester moving average forecast for semesters 4 through 7
1	-
2	-
3	-
4
5
6
7

b (3 pts). Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast (α = .20) for semesters 1 through 7 (Model b) (Use two decimals).

SEMESTER	Exponentially smoothed forecast (α = .20) for semesters 1 through 7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

c (3 pts). Compare the two forecasts using MAD and indicate the most accurate.

MAD (model a) =

MAD (model b) =

Answer 1

SEMESTER	STUDENTS ENROLLED IN OM	a. 3-pd MA	Absolute Error	b. Exp. Smoothing	Absolute Error
1	270			270.00	0.00
2	310			270.00	40.00
3	250			278.00	28.00
4	290	276.67	13.33	272.40	17.60
5	370	283.33	86.67	275.92	94.08
6	410	303.33	106.67	294.74	115.26
7		356.67		317.79
		MAD:	68.89		49.16
Moving average:	F(t)={A1+A2+…+A(n)}/n
exponential smoothing:	α	0.2
		F(t)=α A(t-1)+[1-α]*F(t-1)
Error=Actual-Forecast
MAD=|Error|/n
MAD (model a) =	68.89
MAD (model b) =	49.16
Model b is the most accurate.

formulas used:

If you liked the answer, please give an up-vote, this will be very encouraging for me. Thank you!