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In: Statistics and Probability

U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1984–2016 Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes 1984 3,861...

U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1984–2016
Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes Year Planes
1984 3,861 1992 2,371 2000 4,246 2008 4,509
1985 3,459 1993 2,394 2001 4,064 2009 3,015
1986 2,925 1994 2,358 2002 3,637 2010 2,764
1987 2,515 1995 2,507 2003 3,567 2011 2,753
1988 2,642 1996 2,545 2004 3,785 2012 2,946
1989 2,965 1997 2,979 2005 4,287 2013 3,045
1990 2,574 1998 3,630 2006 4,577 2014 3,061
1991 2,451 1999 3,934 2007 4,709 2015 3,022

Make a forecast for 2016 using a method of your choice (including a judgment forecast). Justify your method. (Round your answer to the nearest whole number.)

The two year moving average forecast for 2016 is _______.

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