In: Statistics and Probability
U.S. Manufactured General Aviation Shipments, 1984–2016 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes | Year | Planes | ||||||||||||||||
1984 | 3,861 | 1992 | 2,371 | 2000 | 4,246 | 2008 | 4,509 | ||||||||||||||||
1985 | 3,459 | 1993 | 2,394 | 2001 | 4,064 | 2009 | 3,015 | ||||||||||||||||
1986 | 2,925 | 1994 | 2,358 | 2002 | 3,637 | 2010 | 2,764 | ||||||||||||||||
1987 | 2,515 | 1995 | 2,507 | 2003 | 3,567 | 2011 | 2,753 | ||||||||||||||||
1988 | 2,642 | 1996 | 2,545 | 2004 | 3,785 | 2012 | 2,946 | ||||||||||||||||
1989 | 2,965 | 1997 | 2,979 | 2005 | 4,287 | 2013 | 3,045 | ||||||||||||||||
1990 | 2,574 | 1998 | 3,630 | 2006 | 4,577 | 2014 | 3,061 | ||||||||||||||||
1991 | 2,451 | 1999 | 3,934 | 2007 | 4,709 | 2015 | 3,022 | ||||||||||||||||
Make a forecast for 2016 using a method of your choice
(including a judgment forecast). Justify your method.
(Round your answer to the nearest whole
number.)
The two year moving average forecast for 2016 is
_______.