Question

Identify and discuss the factors that can cause polls results to be wrong.​

Answer 1

The possible factors for poll results to be wrong are:

(1) Lack of proper surveys for data analysis

(2) Last minute change

(3) Misreporting

Lack of proper data:

The method for conducting an election survey differs from country to country, in som countries they use social media and in some countries like USA, the survey is conducted by making a call, so some of them dont even pick the call and also it is not always necessary that the user is giving proper information for the purpose of survey, which leads to incorrect analysis.

Last minute change:

Consider two political parties X and Y, and 10 people voting in a certain place, 3 of them are voting for X, 4 of them are voting for Y for sure, the remaining 3 are not too sure who to vote, even though in the initial stages it may look that Y is going to win the election, by the last minute, even if he gets the support from other 3 members the political party X is going to win.

Misreporting:

The misreporting is a kind of social bias which is reported by the media and it shows one of the political party as a very good party and they over estimate the leader, this automatically forces the voters to vote for that particular political party and this will lead to an error in the survey report

Miscallenous:

There are a lot of other reasons as well for the survey results to be altered, but it differs from country to country, the political conditions, the developments in the country also reflects on the election surveys

Note: The above reasons were highlighted in context of US poll elections, it differs from country to country and region to region, thank you.