Question

Daily high temperatures in St. Louis for the last week were as​ follows:

92

94,

93

95

97

90

93

​(yesterday).

​a) The high temperature for today using a​ 3-day moving average ​=

degrees ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

​b) The high temperature for today using a​ 2-day moving average ​=

degrees ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

​c) The mean absolute deviation based on a​ 2-day moving average​ =

nothing

degrees ​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

​d) The mean squared error for the​ 2-day moving average​ =

nothing

degrees squareddegrees2

​(round your response to one decimal​ place).

​e) The mean absolute percent error​ (MAPE) for the​ 2-day moving average​ =

nothing​%

​(round your response to one decimal

place​).

Answer 1

1. FORECAST = SUM(PREVIOUS DEMAND) / N

N VALUE = 3

FORECAST 8 = (97 + 90 + 93) / 3 = 93.33

2. FOR N = 2

FORECAST = SUM(PREVIOUS DEMAND) / N

N VALUE = 2

FORECAST 3 = (92 + 94) / 2 = 93

FORECAST 4 = (94 + 93) / 2 = 93.5

FORECAST 5 = (93 + 95) / 2 = 94

FORECAST 6 = (95 + 97) / 2 = 96

FORECAST 7 = (97 + 90) / 2 = 93.5

FORECAST 8 = (90 + 93) / 2 = 91.5

FORECAST ERROR

PERIOD	ACTUAL DEMAND	FORECAST	DEVIATION(D - F)	ABS DEVIATION	(ABS DEV / DEMAND) * 100	DEVIATION ^2
1	92
2	94
3	93	93	0	0	0	0
4	95	93.5	1.5	1.5	1.58	2.25
5	97	94	3	3	3.09	9
6	90	96	-6	6	6.67	36
7	93	93.5	-0.5	0.5	0.54	0.25
SIGMA			-2	11	11.88	47.5

MAD = SUM(ABS ERROR) / N, N = 5

MAD = 11 / 5 = 2.2

MSE = SUM((DEMAND - FORECAST)^2) / N, N = 5

MSE = 47.5 / 5 = 9.5

MAPE = SUM((ABSOLUTE DEVIATION / ACTUAL DEMAND) * 100) / N, N = 5

MAPE = 11.88 / 5 = 2.38

**ALL INTERMEDIATE CALCULATIONS ROUNDED TO 2 DECIMAL PLACES. LET ME KNOW IF YOU FACE ANY PROBLEMS.

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