Question

Question 1 Sales for the Forever Young Cosmetics Company (in $ millions) are as follows:

Year	Sales ($ millions)	Year	Sales ($ Millions)	Year	Sales ($ Milions
1996	2.4	2003	4.4	2010	4.5
1997	2.7	2004	4.8	2011	4.8
1998	3.3	2005	5.1	2012	5.1
1999	4.6	2006	5.3	2013	5.5
2000	3.2	2007	5.2	2014	5.7
2001	3.9	2008	4.6
2002	4	2009	4.5

(a) Develop a three-year moving average.

(b) Develop a four-year moving average.

(c) Develop a five-year moving average.

(d) Develop a seven-year rmoving average.

Answer 1

a)

		3 year moving average
Year	Sales ($ millions)	forecast
1996	2.4
1997	2.7
1998	3.3
1999	4.6	2.80
2000	3.2	3.53
2001	3.9	3.70
2002	4	3.90
2003	4.4	3.70
2004	4.8	4.10
2005	5.1	4.40
2006	5.3	4.77
2007	5.2	5.07
2008	4.6	5.20
2009	4.5	5.03
2010	4.5	4.77
2011	4.8	4.53
2012	5.1	4.60
2013	5.5	4.80
2014	5.7	5.13

b)

		4 year moving average
Year	Sales ($ millions)	forecast
1996	2.4
1997	2.7
1998	3.3
1999	4.6
2000	3.2	3.25
2001	3.9	3.45
2002	4	3.75
2003	4.4	3.93
2004	4.8	3.88
2005	5.1	4.28
2006	5.3	4.58
2007	5.2	4.90
2008	4.6	5.10
2009	4.5	5.05
2010	4.5	4.90
2011	4.8	4.70
2012	5.1	4.60
2013	5.5	4.73
2014	5.7	4.98

c)

		5 year moving average
Year	Sales ($ millions)	forecast
1996	2.4
1997	2.7
1998	3.3
1999	4.6
2000	3.2
2001	3.9	3.24
2002	4	3.54
2003	4.4	3.80
2004	4.8	4.02
2005	5.1	4.06
2006	5.3	4.44
2007	5.2	4.72
2008	4.6	4.96
2009	4.5	5.00
2010	4.5	4.94
2011	4.8	4.82
2012	5.1	4.72
2013	5.5	4.70
2014	5.7	4.88

d)

		7 year moving average
Year	Sales ($ millions)	forecast
1996	2.4
1997	2.7
1998	3.3
1999	4.6
2000	3.2
2001	3.9
2002	4
2003	4.4	3.44
2004	4.8	3.73
2005	5.1	4.03
2006	5.3	4.29
2007	5.2	4.39
2008	4.6	4.67
2009	4.5	4.77
2010	4.5	4.84
2011	4.8	4.86
2012	5.1	4.86
2013	5.5	4.86
2014	5.7	4.89