Question

In: Operations Management

Using the data set provided; Make (and state) any necessary assumptions and apply the following forecast...

Using the data set provided; Make (and state) any necessary assumptions and apply the following forecast method to the earliest two years of actual data:

Three-period simple moving average

Cumulative forecast error (CFE)

Mean error

Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

Tracking signal

Shipments Fasteners
Jan-17 335798
Feb-17 297853
Mar-17 318399
Apr-17 311730
May-17 363876
Jun-17 296832
Jul-17 297513
Aug-17 321144
Sep-17 317677
Oct-17 325487
Nov-17 272937
Dec-17 276282
Jan-18 335439
Feb-18 310514
Mar-18 407754
Apr-18 356169
May-18 345322
Jun-18 331997
Jul-18 343059
Aug-18 350277
Sep-18 265205
Oct-18 389332
Nov-18 310474
Dec-18 308429
Jan-19 385807
Feb-19 332529
Mar-19 407606
Apr-19 361946
May-19 453432
Jun-19 412892
Jul-19 447359
Aug-19 363769
Sep-19 361232
Oct-19 451421
Nov-19 363724
Dec-19 331619

Solutions

Expert Solution

Three month moving average forecast is calculated by averaging out actual values for last 3 months as calculated in below excel screenshots.

All other calculations with formula are shown in the excel screenshot below.


Please give thumbs up/ likes if you consider my answer useful. Thank you!

keosha answered 1 year ago
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