In: Economics
Use the short-run asset approach to predict the effect of a temporary increase in money supply in the U.S. on expected future exchange rate of dollar against euro and spot exchange rate of dollar against euro.
In short run asset approach, the nominal interest rate and the
expected future exchange rate are exogenously determined. The
equilibrium in the foreign market is the condition where the
domestic returns equal the foreign returns. Every economy tried to
make their equality in the foreign market. But most of the times
this equality cannot be obtained.
If US increased the money supply, the domestic interest rate will
fall down. The value of dollar interest rate falls down. This will
leads to decrease in domestic returns. At this point the value of
euro is greater than dollar. This will leads to the depreciation of
US dollar. Thus the domestic returns fall down. On the other hand,
if there is a fall in the euro rate will leads to the lowering
level of foreign expected dollar returns. Thus the total level of
foreign returns becomes lesser than the domestic returns. Thus the
dollar deposits become more attractive and the value of dollar
increases, appreciate. Through increasing the money supply, the
spot exchange rate will rise. This rise in the spot exchange rate
will increase the foreign returns on euro.