A building contractor buys 70% of his cement from supplier A and 30% from supplier B....

A building contractor buys 70% of his cement from supplier A and 30% from supplier B. A total of 95% of the bags from A arrive undamaged, and a total of 90% of the bags from B arrive undamaged. Find the probability that a damaged bag is from supplier Upper A.

Solutions

Expert Solution

P(supplier A) = 0.7

P(supplier B) = 0.3

P(undamaged | supplier A) = 0.95

P(undamaged | supplier B) = 0.9

P(undamaged) = P(undamaged | supplier A) * P(supplier A) + P(undamaged | supplier B) * P(supplier B)

= 0.95 * 0.7 + 0.9 * 0.3

= 0.935

P(damaged) = 1 - 0.935 = 0.065

P(damaged | supplier A) = 1 - P(undamaged | supplier A) = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05

P(supplier A | damaged) = P(damaged | supplier A) * P(supplier A) / P(damaged)

= 0.05 * 0.7 / 0.065

= 0.539

milcah answered 3 months ago

Next > < Previous

Related Solutions

A building contractor buys 80% of his cement from supplier A and 20% from supplier B....

A building contractor buys 80% of his cement from supplier A and 20% from supplier B. A total of 75% of the bags from A arrive undamaged, while 85% of the bags from B arrive undamaged. Find the probability that a damaged bag is from supplier Upper A.

Edward Foster is a building contractor. He and his customer have agreed that he will submit...

Edward Foster is a building contractor. He and his customer have agreed that he will submit a bill to them when he is 25 percent complete, 50 percent complete, 75 percent complete, and 100 percent complete. For example, he has a $200,000 room addition. When he has completed 25 percent, he will bill his customer $50,000. The problem occurs when he is 40 percent complete, has incurred expenses but cannot yet bill his customer. How can his revenue and expenses...

A 30 year old male patient who was a contractor and building inspector in Texas complained...

A 30 year old male patient who was a contractor and building inspector in Texas complained of difficulty breathing and was admitted to the Texas Health Harris Methodist Hospital Alliance with severe respiratory disease. The Physician noted a high fever and cough. Two days before, the patient had inspected an old warehouse, abandoned and infested with rodents. The patient was given intravenous antibiotics, but 2 days into therapy the pneumonia worsened and he developed pulmonary edema. a) Which organism should...

Customer hires a contractor to tile 40 identical rooms in his office building. The customer purchased...

Customer hires a contractor to tile 40 identical rooms in his office building. The customer purchased the tile and the contractor will be reimbursed for labor only. The contractor assumes he can complete one room per day at eight hours per day and at a cost of $1000/day or $1000 per room The planned cost is $40,000 and the planned duration is 40 days Current status At the end of 6 weeks (30 days). The contractor has completed 24 rooms...

An investor puts 30% of his funds into Company A’s shares and 70% of his funds...

An investor puts 30% of his funds into Company A’s shares and 70% of his funds into Company B’s shares. The expected return on Company A’s shares is 12% and the expected return on Company B’s shares is 20%. The standard deviation of returns on Company A is 10% and the standard deviation of returns on Company B is 22%. Required: a) If the correlation coefficient is +0.7 what does this mean? b) Calculate the expected return, variance and standard...

Mimova Ltd buys shoes from a supplier in France and sells them on to retailers in...

Mimova Ltd buys shoes from a supplier in France and sells them on to retailers in Australia. Mimova Ltd currently uses an EOQ model to determine the number of shoes to send to order. Annual demand for shoes are approximately 45,600. The ordering cost is $55 per order. The annual cost of physically storing shoes is $8.75 per unit. The insurance on the inventory (shoes) cost is $4.25 per unit. The opportunity cost (annual ROI 25% x $30) is $7.50...

a.) The J.O. Supplies Company buys calculators from a Korean supplier. The probability of a defective...

a.) The J.O. Supplies Company buys calculators from a Korean supplier. The probability of a defective calculator is 30%. If 14 calculators are selected at random, what is the probability that more than 6 of the calculators will be defective? b.) An important part of the customer service responsibilities of a cable company relates to the speed with which trouble in service can be repaired. Historically, the data show that the likelihood is 0.70 that troubles in a residential service...

Nervous Norman holds 70% of his assets in cash, earning 0%, and 30% of his assets...

Nervous Norman holds 70% of his assets in cash, earning 0%, and 30% of his assets in an insured savings account, earning 2%. The expected return on his portfolio: a) is 0%. b) is 0.6% c) is 2%. d) is 1%. e) cannot be determined without knowing what the dollar value of his assets is.

A cement block accidentally falls from rest from the ledge of a 51.7-m-high building. When the...

A cement block accidentally falls from rest from the ledge of a 51.7-m-high building. When the block is 18.7 m above the ground, a man, 2.00 m tall, looks up and notices that the block is directly above him. How much time, at most, does the man have to get out of the way? Number Units

The J.O. Supplies Company buys calculators from a Korean supplier. The probability of a defective calculator...

The J.O. Supplies Company buys calculators from a Korean supplier. The probability of a defective calculator is 15%. If 16 calculators are selected at random, what is the probability that more than 5 of the calculators will be defective?

Subjects

Question

A building contractor buys 70​% of his cement from supplier A and 30​% from supplier B....

Solutions

Expert Solution

Related Solutions

A building contractor buys 70% of his cement from supplier A and 30% from supplier B....