Question

A noted psychic was tested for extrasensory perception. The psychic was presented with 200 cards face down and asked to determine if each card were one of five symbols: a star, a cross, a circle, a square, or three wavy lines. The psychic was correct in 50 cases. Let p represent the probability that the psychic correctly identifies the symbol on the card in a random trial. Assume the 200 trials can be treated as a simple random sample from the population of all guesses the psychic would make in his lifetime. How large a sample n would you need to estimate p with a margin of error of 0.01 with 95% confidence?

Answer 1

sample proportion ,   p̂ = 50/200 = 0.25                          
sampling error ,    E =   0.01                          
Confidence Level ,   CL=   0.95                          
                                  
alpha =   1-CL =   0.05                          
Z value =    Zα/2 =    1.960   [excel formula =normsinv(α/2)]                      
                                  
Sample Size,n = (Z / E)² * p̂ * (1-p̂) = (   1.960   /   0.01   ) ² *   0.25   * ( 1 -   0.25   ) =    7202.74
                                  
                                  
so,Sample Size required=       7203