Question

An oil drilling enterprise is now planning a venture. A preliminary survey shows that the probabilities for large (L) and small (S) oil deposits are respectively equal to 10% and 90%, and that the cost of exploration is $1,000,000. If large deposits are discovered, the enterprise earns a profit of $16,000,000, less the exploration cost. If small deposits are found, the project will be ceased. The enterprise can choose to employ experts to conduct an official survey which costs $500,000. An official survey would indicate that large deposits are likely (P), large deposits are unlikely (N), or there is inconclusive evidence (I). The survey results obtained by the experts are shown in Table below:

Actual Result		Prediction
	P	N	I
L	60%	20%	20%
S	10%	80%	10%

1) Find ??(?|?), ??(?|?), ??(?|?), ??(?|?), ??(?|?), ??(?|?) and ??(?|?) and Calculate Pr(P), Pr(N) and Pr(I).

Answer 1