Question

Why do so many new complex system developments incur large risks by choosing to apply immature technology? Give an example of where and how such choices paid off and one where they did not.

Answer 1

Many new complex system developments incur large risks by choosing to apply immature and unproven technology. Sometimes the risk and investment in a new immature technology pay off immensely creating a competitive advantage through the early use and application of the technology. Other times the immature technology is untested and not fully researched yet leading to complications in the utility and overall success of the system. This associated risk is something companies analyze greatly before deciding whether or not to apply the technology in question in their new complex system.  

One such case where the immature technology did not pay off was the in the 1981 Cadillac Fleetwood V-8-6-4 engine that was one of the first automobiles to utilize cylinder deactivation technology. In this case, the immature technology was the cylinder deactivation technology. Cadillac, in conjunction with Eaton Corporation, developed the state-of-the-art V-8-6-4 system which used the industry's first engine control unit to switch the engine from 8- to 6- to 4-cylinder operation depending on the amount of power needed. The original multi-displacement system disabled opposite pairs of cylinders, allowing the engine to have three separate configurations and displacements. The cars’ overall contained an intricate diagnostics system, including displaying engine trouble codes on the air conditioning dashboard display. However, the systems were riddled with troubles, misconstrued by customers, and a sudden outbreak of erratic failures led to the technology being quickly retired (Peter). At the present time, cylinder deactivation, or variable displacement as it is more commonly known, is quite common in most automobiles due to its high fuel efficiency. In 1981 though, when semiconductors and on-board computers were still relatively in their early stages of development, variable displacement was a huge technical nightmare for engineers. The automobiles experienced major technical problems during operation, and customers began bringing the vehicles back into the dealerships to have the systems disconnected or to return the vehicles completely (50 Worst).

A successful case study regarding the successful implementation of an immature technology in a complex system that paid off was the utilization of Bluetooth technology in automobiles. Chrysler was the first American automobile manufacturer to offer Bluetooth technology in its vehicles (Howard). Bluetooth was relatively still a newer technology that hadn’t been fully implemented in vehicles yet, and the full use of its capabilities to what we know today hadn’t fully materialized yet. Chrysler saw the true worth of this technology and began early investment in the implementation of it in its vehicles in early 2001. The technology has only grown exponentially since then and Bluetooth capabilities are practically a standard now in all new vehicles being produced worldwide today. The hands-free cellphone laws that have been passed in many states in the US has only increased the usage and implementation of technology. Bluetooth technologies and its application and implementation in vehicles will only continue to grow and it won’t be long until it is a standard feature on every new vehicle made.