Question

Write an Empirical Model for Addressing the Issues of economic and social cost of opioid in US. 

Answer 1

The opioid epidemic in the U.S. is fundamentally tied to two primary issues. The first issue was the significant rise in opioid analgesic prescriptions that began in the mid-to-late 1990s. Not only did the volume of opioids prescribed increase, but well-intentioned healthcare providers began to prescribe opioids to treat pain in ways that we now know are high-risk and have been associated with opioid abuse, addiction, and overdose, such as prescribing at high doses and for longer durations. The second issue is a lack of health system and healthcare provider capacity to identify and engage individuals, and provide them with high-quality, evidence-based opioid addiction treatment, in particular the full spectrum of medication-assisted treatment (MAT). It is well-documented that the majority of people with opioid addiction in the U.S. do not receive treatment, and even among those who do, many do not receive evidence-based care. Accounting for these factors is paramount to the development of a successful strategy to combat the opioid crisis. Further, there is a need for more rigorous research to better understand how existing programs or policies might be contributing to or mitigating the opioid epidemic.

The boundaries delineating governmental agencies' respective responsibilities do not always align with the real boundaries of markets or behaviors concerning OUD and resulting overdose. While the FDA's regulatory authority may give it a particular interest in reducing addiction and mortality caused by prescription opioids, the nation's overall public health interest lies in reducing addiction and mortality caused by opioids of all sorts. A person with prescription opioid–related OUD may escalate his or her opioid misuse, and an overdose leaves a grieving family wondering whether or not the person's last dose was obtained through a prescription.

Prescription and nonprescription opioids intertwine on both the demand and supply sides of the market because all opioids belong to one family of chemicals that operate on similar molecular pathways; the molecules bind to a neuroreceptor regardless of whether they are associated with a prescription. In addition, the prescription opioid epidemic is interwoven with the illegal drug market. It considers policy options for reducing OUD, mortality due to opioid overdose, and other opioid-related harms among people who have ever used prescription opioids, rather than focusing exclusively on options for reducing misuse of or overdoses from prescription opioids alone.

In the economic sense of the term, all opioids are substitutes (as opposed to complements) in the same sense that oil, gas, coal, nuclear, solar, and hydro are substitute sources of energy for producing electric power. Substitutes are not identical and interchangeable; a molecule of morphine is different from a molecule of fentanyl, just as a barrel of oil differs from a ton of coal. There are distinguishable groupings within broad families of substitutes. Energy policy distinguishes fossil fuels from sources with lower carbon footprints; in this context, one can distinguish partial from complete opioid agonists. But just as one cannot develop a sensible response to global warming by changing only policies toward oil, one cannot develop a sensible response to the nation's opioid problem by adjusting only policies concerning prescription opioids.

The central economic idea about substitutes is that people will tend to use more of item A and less of item B when the price of A falls relative to the price of B, where price is construed broadly to mean the total cost of obtaining and using the item. For opioids, that total cost includes not only the dollar price, but also the time and inconvenience of obtaining the drug and all relevant risks in terms of health and possible criminal justice sanctioning (Moore, 2013; Reuter and Kleiman, 1986; Rocheleau and Boyum, 1994). A related concept is substitution driven by changes in income; as people become poorer, they may substitute hamburger in place of steak and heroin in place of prescription opioids (Petry and Bickel, 1998)

in the case of the opioid epidemic, one common pathway to death over the past 20 years has been becoming addicted to prescription opioids, no longer being able to sustain that habit financially, and so trading down to cheaper black market opioids before dying of an overdose or suicide. Trading down can also involve beginning to inject drugs, since that is a more efficient mode of ingesting psychoactive substances. Therefore, additional opioid-relevant public health outcomes include morbidity and mortality stemming from bloodborne infection (e.g., hepatitis C virus [HCV], HIV), both for the individuals injecting and for others (e.g., sexual partners). These outcomes remain relevant even if, for example, no prescription opioids were taken during the month preceding death due to AIDS.

Conversely, finding large amounts of a prescription opioid in the decedent's body does not imply that the person had a prescription. It is common for people who have traded down to black market drugs to retain their prescriptions for purposes of reselling those drugs on the black market. In 2016, typical street prices were $10–$30 for a 30 mg tablet of oxycodone, $5–$20 for a methadone tablet, $3–$8 for Vicodin, and $1 per mcg per hour for fentanyl patches (WSIN, 2016). Thus, diverting to the black market a prescription for two 30 mg tablets per day can produce revenues of $7,300–$21,900 over the course of 1 year. That income is tax-free and mostly pure profit because the copays for those prescriptions are typically small, as is the case for those filled through Medicaid, for example.

Thinking beyond prescription-related misuse becomes all the more important when one recognizes that the same chemicals that appear in prescription drugs are increasingly reaching users not only through diversion but also via distribution chains that are illegal from top to bottom. So even when an autopsy shows that the decedent's body contained a drug that is available by prescription, this does not mean that the fatal dose was obtained through a prescription by the decedent or anyone else.

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