In: Statistics and Probability
You are given the returns for the following three stocks:
Return |
|||
Year |
Stock A |
Stock B |
Stock C |
1 |
8% |
7% |
-22% |
2 |
8% |
15% |
35% |
3 |
8% |
3% |
15% |
4 |
8% |
12% |
3% |
5 |
8% |
3% |
9% |
Calculate the arithmetic return, geometric return, and standard deviation for each stock. Do you notice anything about the relationship between an asset’s arithmetic return, standard deviation, and geometric return? Do you think this relationship will always hold?
STOCK- A
arithmetic return = (0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08+0.08) / 5 = 0.08 = 8%
variance = 1/4 [ (0.08-0.08)^2 + (0.08-0.08)^2 + (0.08-0.08)^2 + (0.08-0.08)^2 + (0.08-0.08)^2 ] = 0.0
standard deviation = (0.0)1/2 = 0.0
geometric return = ( (1+0.08) (1+0.08) (1+0.08) (1+0.08) (1+0.08) )^ 1/5 - 1 = 0.80
STOCK- B
arithmetic return = (0.07+0.15+0.03+0.12+0.03) / 5 = 0.08 = 8%
variance = 1/4 [ (0.07-0.08)^2 + (0.15-0.08)^2 + (0.03-0.08)^2 + (0.12-0.08)^2 + (0.03-0.08)^2 ] = 0.0029
standard deviation = (0.0029)1/2 = 0.053
geometric return = ( (1+0.07) (1+0.15) (1+0.03) (1+0.12) (1+0.03) )^ 1/5 - 1 = 0.08
STOCK- C
arithmetic return = (-0.22 + 0.35 + 0.15 + 0.03 + 0.09) / 5 = 0.08 = 8%
variance = 1/4 [ (0.22-0.08)^2 + (0.35-0.08)^2 + (0.15-0.08)^2 + (0.03-0.08)^2 + (0.09-0.08)^2 ] = 0.0426
standard deviation = (0.0426)1/2 = 0.206
geometric return = ( (1-0.22) (1+0.35) (1+0.15) (1+0.03) (1+0.09) )^ 1/5 - 1 = 0.08
in case of standard deviation , it gets larger when there is no difference between the arithmetic return and geometric return .