Question

In: Operations Management

Use Excel to calculate the values to fill in the empty boxes. Feel free to add...

Use Excel to calculate the values to fill in the empty boxes. Feel free to add additional tables and calculations as

needed.

Historical Demand Data 2012 to 2016:

The table reproduced below is the demand data for a company (aggregated) for the previous five years.

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Q1

11632

15034

16117

15565

16470

Q2

22509

26824

24169

20151

42858

Q3

21646

13314

14505

13392

19278

Q4

11355

10698

11176

10613

13934

Annual Demand

67,142

65,870

65,967

59,721

92,540

Average Quarterly Demand

16,785.50

16,467.50

16,491.75

14,930.25

23,135.00

Forecasting Using Moving Average Methods

Using the historical demand data above, you are to determine the total annual demand forecast for 2016 and 2017 using:

Ø the three-period moving average forecasting method

Ø the three-period weighted moving average method with weights of .6, .3, and .1

Enter your forecast results in the following tables.

2016 Annual Forecast Using a Moving Average

2016 Annual Forecast Using a Weighted Moving Average

63,852.67

62209.7

2017 Annual Forecast Using a Moving Average

2017 Annual Forecast Using a Weighted Moving Average

72742.67

80037

Calculate a Time Series Linear equation using the all of the above demand data:

Using the historical demand data for 2012 through 2016, create a linear equation with the year as the independent variable and the annual volume as the dependent variable.

Enter your linear equation in text from here:   

Calculated 2017 Annual Forecast from Linear Equation:

Forecasting Using an Exponential Smoothing Method and Seasonal Factors:

Using the historical demand data for 2012 through 2016 given on the first page you are to:

Ø Using the exponential smoothing forecasting method with an alpha value of 0.7, forecast the total annual demand for 2017. Start your forecast calculations with the total annual demand for 2012 and a starting forecast for 2012 that is the

Ø Determine the average seasonal factors for each quarter. Remember that you will first need to calculate the total annual demand and then average quarterly demand for each year of data as shown in lecture.

Ø Determine the MAD, CFE, and MAPE errors between the annual forecast values using exponential smoothing for 2013 to 2016 and the actual annual demand data for 2013 to 2016. Enter the values in response to the three questions below.

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Actual Annual Demand

67,142

65,870

65,967

59,721

92,540

Forecasted Annual Demand

67,142

67142

66251.6

66052.38

61620.414

Forecast Error

-1,272

-285

-6,331

30,920

Values

Seasonal Factor for each Quarter

2017 Quarterly Forecast

Quarter 1

0.89

Quarter 2

1.63

Quarter 3

0.98

Quarter 4

0.69

Totals

4.19

What is the MAD value for the exponential smoothing forecast? Answer =

What is the CFE value for the exponential smoothing forecast? Answer =

What is the MAPE value for the exponential smoothing forecast? Answer =

Forecasting using trend with regression:

Calculate forecasts for 2017, 2016 and 2015 using a linear regression of the previous three actual demand values.

(Hint: You will need to calculate three different linear equations.)

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Actual Annual Demand

67,142

65,870

65,967

59,721

92,540

slope

-587.5

Forecasted Annual Demand

67,142

67,142

66,252

66,052

61,620

intercept

Forecast Error

-6,331

30,920

What is the MAD value for the trend with regression forecast? Answer =

What is the CFE value for the trend with regression forecast? Answer =

What is the MAPE value for the trend with regression forecast? Answer =

Solutions

Expert Solution

rs

Formulas:

A10 =AVERAGE(C6:E6)

B10 =E6*0.6+D6*0.3+C6*0.1

E10 =AVERAGE(D6:F6)

F10 =F6*0.6+E6*0.3+D6*0.1

B13 =ROUND(INTERCEPT(B6:F6,B1:F1),2)&" + "&ROUND(SLOPE(B6:F6,B1:F1),2)&"X"

D15 =-8921657.8+4464.7*2017

C20 =B20+(B19-B20)*$F$17 copy to C20:F20

C21 =C19-C20 copy to C21:F21

C22 =ABS(C21) copy to C22:F22

C23 =C22/C19   copy to C23:F23

E25 =AVERAGE(C22:F22)

E26 =SUM(C21:F21)

E27 =AVERAGE(C23:F23)

B33 =-8921657.8+4464.7*B31 copy to B33:F33

C34 =C32-C33 copy to C34:F34

C35 =ABS(C34) copy to C35:F35

C36 =C35/C32 copy to C36:F36

E38 =AVERAGE(C35:F35)

E39 =SUM(C34:F34)

E40 =AVERAGE(C36:F36)


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