In: Finance
Halliford Corporation expects to have earnings this coming year of $ 3.201 per share. Halliford plans to retain all of its earnings for the next two years. Then, for the subsequent two years, the firm will retain 53 % of its earnings. It will retain 17% of its earnings from that point onward. Each year, retained earnings will be invested in new projects with an expected return of 22.4% per year. Any earnings that are not retained will be paid out as dividends. Assume Halliford's share count remains constant and all earnings growth comes from the investment of retained earnings. If Halliford's equity cost of capital is 9.2%, what price would you estimate for Hallifordstock?
Formula | Year (n) | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Perpetual |
Retention rate (a) | 100.00% | 100.00% | 53.00% | 53.00% | 17.00% | 17.00% | |
Return on new investments (b) | 22.40% | 22.40% | 22.40% | 22.40% | 22.40% | 22.40% | |
(an-1*bn) | Growth rate (g) | 22.40% | 22.40% | 11.87% | 11.87% | 3.81% | |
E*(1+g) | Earnings ('E) | 3.20 | 3.92 | 4.80 | 5.37 | 6.00 | 6.23 |
E*(1-a) | Dividend (D) | - | - | 2.25 | 2.52 | 4.98 | 5.17 |
Dperpetual/(k-g); k = 9.2%, g = 3.81% |
Terminal cash flow | 95.91 | |||||
Total cash flows (CF) | - | - | 2.25 | 2.52 | 4.98 | 95.91 | |
1/(1+d)^n | Discount factor @ 9.2% | 0.916 | 0.839 | 0.768 | 0.703 | 0.644 | 0.644 |
(CF*Discount factor) | PV of cash flows | - | - | 1.73 | 1.77 | 3.21 | 61.76 |
Sum of all PVs | NPV | 68.48 |
Price per share = $68.48