In: Economics
Halliford Corporation expects to have earnings this coming year of $2.873 per share. Halliford plans to retain all of its earnings for the next two years. Then, for the subsequent two years, the firm will retain 46% of its earnings. It will retain 18% of its earnings from that point onward. Each year, retained earnings will be invested in new projects with an expected return of 20.1% per year. Any earnings that are not retained will be paid out as dividends. Assume Halliford's share count remains constant and all earnings growth comes from the investment of retained earnings. If Halliford's equity cost of capital is 9.7%, what price would you estimate for Halliford stock?
solution) Cost of Capital:9.7%
Return on New Projects:20.1%
Period: 1 2 3 4 5 P at 5
EPS $2.873 $ 3.45 $ 4.144 $ 4.976 $ 5.977 $ 7.17
Retention rate 100% 100% 46% 46% 18% 18%
Divident - - $ 1.90 $ 2.28 $ 1.07 $ 1.29
g (Prior Retention x r) - 23% 23% 11.5% 11.5% 5%
Dividend (and
Terminal Dividend) - - $1.90 $2.28 $ 1.07 93.47
Discount Period 1 2 3 4 5 5
Sum of PV68.39$
Note: calculates the answers as of t = 4 so P =
(4.75)/(.10-.05), but if you do it this way, it might be less clear
to you that g = 5% going forward