Question

• Discuss three methods of forecasting the future requirements for demand.
• Discuss measures to meet demand for access to medical care in the future.
• Analyze policy proposals to meet the demands identified.

Answer 1

1. Demand Forecasting is a systematic and scientific estimation of future demand for a product. Simply, estimating the sales proceeds or demand for a product in the future is called as demand forecasting.

a. Survey Methods: Under the survey method, the consumers are contacted directly and are asked about their intentions for a product and their future purchase plans. This method is often used when the forecasting of a demand is to be done for a short period of time. The survey method includes:

• Consumer Survey Method
• Opinion Poll Method

b. Statistical Methods: The statistical methods are often used when the forecasting of demand is to be done for a longer period. The statistical methods utilize the time-series (historical) and cross-sectional data to estimate the long-term demand for a product.

c. End-use Method: It is especially used for forecasting the demand of the inputs. Under this method, the final users i.e. the consuming industries and other sectors are identified. The desirable norms of consumption of the product are fixed, the targeted output levels are estimated and these norms are applied to forecast the future demand of the input

2. With demographic trends and spending concerns as a backdrop, the Medicare program began to emphasize achievement of the “Triple Aim” in 2009. A framework initially conceived by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, but now almost universally accepted in health care policy and delivery, the Triple Aim has focused efforts to innovate in the Medicare program and has propelled considerable change. The Triple Aim declares that to improve the U.S. health care system, it is vital to pursue three goals simultaneously:

1. Improving the patient experience of care (including quality and satisfaction);

2. Improving the health of populations; and

3. Reducing the per capita cost of health care.

HHS has made strides toward achieving these goals. While quality programs in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) primarily focused on hospitals, recent legislation and regulatory actions have expanded quality and value programs to post–acute care with the skilled nursing facility (SNF) value-based purchasing program and the home health value-based purchasing demonstration. In addition, post–acute care providers are increasingly finding themselves affected “downstream” by programs directed at other entities, such as bundled payments and hospital value-based purchasing.

3. According to the Census Bureau, 48 million Americans were uninsured as of 2012. The number of uninsured children in 2012 was 6.6 million.

Even if they are fortunate enough to have health insurance, many Americans live in medically underserved areas – that is, communities with few or no health care facilities or clinicians.

One of the organizations working to place health care providers in medically underserved areas is the National Health Service Corps (NHSC). More than 45,000 primary care medical, dental and mental and behavioral health professionals have served in the National Health Service Corps since its inception. Watch providers at work talking about what they do and the benefits to them and their patients.

The NHSC supports providers by awarding scholarships and loan repayment while the providers in turn commit to serving for at least two years at an NHSC-approved site located in a Health Professional Shortage Area (HPSA).

Health-care human resources (HHR) planning has been identified as the most critical constraint in achieving the well-being targets set forth in the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals. Moreover, the effective use and deployment of personnel is paramount to ensure an efficient service delivery in terms of cost, quality and quantity. Failure to do so may result in an oversupply or shortage of clinical staff. While the former may lead to economic inefficiencies and misallocated resources under the guise of unemployment or inflated costs through supplier-induced demand , the latter is linked to a more extensive list of negative effects, including but not limited to the following: lower quantity and quality of medical care as few resources exist to provide the necessary services and the visits are shorter ; work overload of the available physicians and nurses, resulting in sleep-deprivation, ultimately compromising patient safety; and queues and waiting lists resulting from insufficient medical staff, causing avoidable patient deaths