In: Statistics and Probability
The Centers for Disease Control reported the percentage of people 18 years of age and older who smoke (CDC website, December 14, 2014). Suppose that a study designed to collect new data on smokers and nonsmokers uses a preliminary estimate of the proportion who smoke of .28.
a. How large a sample should be taken to estimate the proportion
of smokers in the population with a margin of error of .02 (to the
nearest whole number)? Use 95% confidence.
b. Assume that the study uses your sample size recommendation in
part (a) and finds 520 smokers. What is the point estimate of the
proportion of smokers in the population (to 4 decimals)?
c. What is the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of smokers in the population (to 4 decimals)?
Solution,
Given that,
a) = 0.28
1 - = 1 - 0.28 = 0.72
margin of error = E = 0.02
At 95% confidence level
= 1 - 95%
= 1 - 0.95 =0.05
/2
= 0.025
Z/2
= Z0.025 = 1.96
sample size = n = (Z / 2 / E )2 * * (1 - )
= (1.96 / 0.02)2 * 0.28 * 0.72
= 1936.16
sample size = n = 1937
b) x = 520
Point estimate = sample proportion = = x / n = 520 / 1937 = 0.2685
1 - = 1 - 0.2685 = 0.7315
c) At 95% confidence level
= 1 - 95%
=1 - 0.95 =0.05
/2
= 0.025
Z/2
= Z0.025 = 1.960
Margin of error = E = Z / 2 * (( * (1 - )) / n)
= 1.96 (((0.2685 * 0.7315) / 1937)
= 0.0197
A 95% confidence interval for population proportion p is ,
± E
= 0.2685 ± 0.0197
= ( 0.2488, 0.2882 )