Question

In: Statistics and Probability

1. Following the UK referendum in 2016, 910 randomly sampled UK voters were asked which of...

1. Following the UK referendum in 2016, 910 randomly sampled UK voters were asked which of the following options they agreed most with (i) the UK should negotiate an exit deal with the EU, then have a second referendum, (ii) the UK should negotiate an exit deal with the EU then enact Article 50, or (iii) the UK should enact Article 50 immediately. The results of the survey by political ideology are shown below.

Po/itico/ ideology

Conservative

Labour

Liberal

Total

(i)Negotiate then referendum

57

120

101

278

(ii)Negotiate then enact

121

113

28

262

(iii) Enact Article 50 immediately

179

126

1

306

(iv) Not sure

15

4

45

64

Total

372

363

175

910

  1. What percent of these voters identify themselves as labour?
  2. What percent of these voters are in favour of enacting Article 50immediately?
  3. What percent of the voters who identify themselves as Conservatives are also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option? What percent of Labour share this view? What percent of Liberal share this view? [Compute 3 conditional probabilities.]
  4. Do political ideology and views on Article 50 appear to be independent? No formal testing is required, but make sure to explain your reasoning.

Solutions

Expert Solution

(a) Here total labors = 363

Total population = 910

Percent of voters that are labour = 363/910 = 0.3989

(b) Total who suport artical 50 immediately = 306

percent of voters that support article 50 immediately = 306/910 = 0.3363

(c) Number of voters who are in conservative = 372

Conservative People who are in favour of negotiate then referendum' option = 57

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as Conservatives are also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 57/372 = 0.1532

Number of voters who are in labour = 363

Labour People who are in favour of negotiate then referendum' option = 120

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as labour are also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 120/363 = 0.331

Number of voters who are Liberal = 175

Liberal People who are in favour of negotiate then referendum' option = 101

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as Liberalare also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 101/175 = 0.577

(d) Here to check the independence first we check the percent of each party views on Article 50.

we will see first for negotiate than referendum

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as Conservatives are also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 57/372 = 0.1532

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as labour are also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 120/363 = 0.331

Percent of  the voters who identify themselves as Liberalare also in favour of the “negotiate then referendum” option

= 101/175 = 0.577

here as we can see that there is a stark difference in percentage of the voters for each party so we can say that views for each party is different on Article 50.


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