In: Statistics and Probability
Consider the following information, which are estimates as of mid-2019.
Consider the following information, which are estimates as of mid-2019.
Country | Population Size | Birth Rate | Death Rate |
United States | 329.2 million | 12 | 9 |
China | 1388.0 million | 11 | 7 |
Finland | 5.5 million | 9 | 10 |
For each country listed above, calculate r and how many people there will be in mid-2020 if population growth is exponential. Use the differential equation (dN/dt) for exponential population growth that was presented in Lecture.
r is the Net Productive rate which is given by Birth date - Death rate
Country | Birth Rate | Death Rate | Net Productive rate (r) |
United States | 12 | 9 | 3 |
China | 11 | 7 | 4 |
FInland | 9 | 10 | -2 |
dN/dt = r * N
Here N is the Population size, r is the Net productive rate calculated in the above table
For United States
dN/dt = 3 * 329.3 million
= 987.9 million
since the time difference is only 1 year, dt will be 1
so N2020 - N2019 = 987.9
so N2020 = 987.9 + 329.3
= 1317.2 million
For China
dN/dt = 4 * 1388 million
= 5552 million
since the time difference is only 1 year, dt will be 1
so N2020 - N2019 = 5552
so N2020 = 5552 + 1317.2
= 6869.2 million
For Finland
dN/dt = (-1) * 5.5 million
= - 5.5 million
since the time difference is only 1 year, dt will be 1
so N2020 - N2019 = -5.5
so N2020 = -5.5+ 5.5
= 0
I am not sure whether the birth rate is per 1000 or per 100000 but the units are not given here so i have taken the birth rate and death rate as given in the table