Question

2. A project with an up-front cost at t=0 of $1500 is being considered by Nationwide Pharmaceutical Corporation (NPC). (All dollars in this problem are in thousands.) The project’s subsequent cash flows are critically dependent on whether a competitor’s product that is now under development is approved by the Food and Drug Administration. If the FDA rejects the competitive product upon the completion of its development, NPC’s product will have high sales and cash flows, but if the competitive product is approved, that will negatively impact NPC. There is a 75% chance that the competitive product will be rejected, in which case NPC’s expected cash flows will be $550 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). There is a 25% chance that the competitor’s product will be approved, in which case the expected cash flows will be only $20 at the end of each of the next seven years (t = 1 to 7). NPC will know only sometime later whether the competitor’s product is going to be approved.

NPC will proceed with the investment today to take advantage of the untapped market potential and at the end of the project’s life, after finding out about the FDA’s decision about the demand for competitor’s product, they will decide whether or not to renew the patent and rerun the project. The project rerun’s upfront cost (at t = 7) will remain at $1,500, and the subsequent cash flows will remain unchanged and will be received for seven additional years (t = 8 ... 14). They will only rerun the project if the rerun of the project adds value.

Assuming that all cash flows are discounted at 10%, what is the NPV of the project with and without the growth option?

Answer 1

COMPUTATION OF NPV OF PROJECT

With Growth (for 14 years)

Years	Cash Flow if Competitor's product accepted	Probability of acception	Cash Flow if Competitor's product rejected	Probability of rejection	Expected Cash Flows	Present Value Factor	Present Value
a	b	c	d	e	f=(b*c)+(d*e)	g	h=f*g
1	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.909	$138.64
2	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.826	$126.03
3	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.751	$114.58
4	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.683	$104.16
5	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.621	$94.69
6	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.564	$86.08
7	-$950.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	-$222.50	0.513	-$114.18
8	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.467	$256.58
9	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.424	$233.25
10	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.386	$212.05
11	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.350	$192.77
12	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.319	$175.25
13	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.290	$159.32
14	$550.00	NA	NA	NA	$550.00	0.263	$144.83
						PV of Inflow (I)	$1,924.05
					Less:	Outflow at year 1 (O)	$1,500.00
						NPV (I - O)	$424.05

Thus, In case of Growth, NPV of the project will be $ 424.05

NOTE:- Growth (i.e investment in Year 7 will be undertaken only if competitors product is rejected in which case the Net cash inflows will be $550 and probability of acceptance and rejection will not be applicable.

Without Growth (for 7 years)

Years	Cash Flow if Competitor's product accepted	Probability of acception	Cash Flow if Competitor's product rejected	Probability of rejection	Expected Cash Flows	Present Value Factor	Present Value
a	b	c	d	e	f=(b*c)+(d*e)	g	h=f*g
1	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.909	$138.64
2	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.826	$126.03
3	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.751	$114.58
4	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.683	$104.16
5	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.621	$94.69
6	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.564	$86.08
7	$550.00	0.25	$20.00	0.75	$152.50	0.513	$78.26
						PV of Inflow (I)	$742.43
					Less:	Outflow at year 1 (O)	$1,500.00
						NPV (I - O)	-$757.57

Therefore, in case of no growth, NPV will be - $757.57

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