Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Mumps is a highly contagious viral infection that most often occurs in children, but can affect...

Mumps is a highly contagious viral infection that most often occurs in children, but can affect adults, particularly if they are living in shared living spaces such as college dormitories. It is most recognizable by the swelling of salivary glands at the side of the face under the ears, but earlier symptoms include headaches, fever, and joint pain. Suppose a college student at a university presents to a physician with symptoms of headaches, fever, and joint pain. Let A = {headaches, fever, and joint pain}, and suppose that the possible disease state of the patient can be partitioned into: B1 = normal, B2 = common cold, B3 = mumps. From clinical experience, the physician estimates P(A|Bi): P(A|B1) = 0.001, P(A|B2) = 0.70, P(A|B3) = 0.95. The physician, aware that some students have contracted the mumps, then estimates that for students at this university, P (B1) = 0.95, P (B2) = 0.025, and P (B3) = 0.025. Given the previous symptoms, which of the disease states is most likely?

Solutions

Expert Solution

Answer : Given the symptoms, mumps (B3) are most likely to occur.

The detailed solution is given in the attached file.Hope this helps


Related Solutions

The spread of a highly contagious virus in a high school can be described by the...
The spread of a highly contagious virus in a high school can be described by the logistic function g(x)=43/1+6.40e^−0.36x where x is the number of days after the virus is identified in the school and​ g(x) is the total number of people who are infected by the virus. ​(a) How many students had the virus when it was first​ discovered? ​(b) Graph the function for 0≤x≤50. ​(c) Determine when the virus will infect 24 students. ​(d) According to this​ model,...
Explain how a vaccine can induce a secondary response to a viral infection.
Explain how a vaccine can induce a secondary response to a viral infection.
Children overseas often go hungry for long periods of time. In what ways can this affect...
Children overseas often go hungry for long periods of time. In what ways can this affect social, cognitive and physical development?
In statistics, the mode of a set of values is the value that occurs most often...
In statistics, the mode of a set of values is the value that occurs most often or with the greatest frequency. Write a function that accepts as arguments the following: An array of integers An integer that indicates the number of elements in the array The function should determine the mode of the array. That is, it should determine which value in the array occurs most often. The mode is the value the function should return. If the array has...
Osteosarcoma is a relatively rare type of bone cancer. It occurs most often in young adults,...
Osteosarcoma is a relatively rare type of bone cancer. It occurs most often in young adults, age 10 - 19; it is diagnosed in approximately 8 per 1,000,000 individuals per year in that age group. In New York City (including all five boroughs), the number of young adults in this age range is approximately 1,400,000. a) What is the expected number of cases of osteosarcoma in NYC in a given year? b) What is the probability that 15 or more...
consider the symptomology of PTSD and how trauma can affect children and adolescents. Then, select a...
consider the symptomology of PTSD and how trauma can affect children and adolescents. Then, select a different type of childhood or adolescent trauma from the one you selected for the Discussion. Consider the posttraumatic stress symptoms that are likely to occur and what type of treatment interventions you might use to treat the child or adolescent. Also, think about how you might support or educate parents or guardians as they attempt to support their child or adolescent.
List the different anxiety disorders that can affect children. Identify one of the disorders and discuss...
List the different anxiety disorders that can affect children. Identify one of the disorders and discuss the diagnostic criteria as well as one psychological treatment used to treat the disorder.
Some dietitians have suggested that highly acidic diets can have an adverse affect on bone density...
Some dietitians have suggested that highly acidic diets can have an adverse affect on bone density in humans. Alkaline diets have been marketed to avoid or counteract this effect. Is the same thing true for cats, and would an alkaline diet be beneficial? Two groups of four cats were fed diets for 12 months that differed only in acidifying or alkalinizing properties. The bone mineral density (g/cm2) of each cat was measured at the end of 12 months. The summary...
Which BEHAVIORAL BIASES most often affect our investment decisions and how do they do so? What...
Which BEHAVIORAL BIASES most often affect our investment decisions and how do they do so? What are some premeditated tools / systems which one could use to avoid making these errors?
Most minerals can be identified without using highly scientific chemical analyses in a lab. Identify four...
Most minerals can be identified without using highly scientific chemical analyses in a lab. Identify four mineral properties that allow geologists to identify minerals without chemically analyzing them in a lab. then describe briefly how minerals form
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT