In: Statistics and Probability
The Spiked Seltzer Company must decide whether or not they should introduce a new flavored spiked drink. The owner predicts that if it does introduce the new flavor it will earn a profit of $1 million if sales are around 100 million units, a profit of $200,000 if sales are around 50 million units, or it will lose $2 million if sales are only around 1 million units. If Spiked Seltzer Company does not invest in marketing the new flavor, it will definitely suffer a loss of $400,000.
a. Create a payoff table for this problem.
b. Create a regret table for this problem.
c. Should Spiked Seltzer introduce the new flavor if the owner: (1) is conservative; (2) is optimistic; (3) wants to minimize its maximum disappointment?
d. Preliminary market research study has found P(100 million in sales) = 40%; P(50 million in sales) = 50%; P(1 million in sales) = 10%. Should Spiked Seltzer introduce the new flavor? e. A outside consulting company can perform a thorough market study for $200,000. Should the owner commission this study?
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