Question

1. Consider the applications for home mortgages data in the file of P12_04.xlsx.

1. Create a time series chart of the dat
2. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using the default smoothing constant of 0.1
3. Calculate the three types of forecast errors, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE
4. Use the solver function in excel to optimize the smoothing constant in order to generate a minimum MAPE value.
5. Use multiple regression to develop an equation that can be used to predict future applications for home mortgages (hint: use dummy variables for the quarters and create a time variable for the quarter numbers)

Quarter	Year	Applications
1	1	96
2	1	114
3	1	112
4	1	81
1	2	97
2	2	103
3	2	120
4	2	99
1	3	105
2	3	110
3	3	117
4	3	96
1	4	74
2	4	94
3	4	100
4	4	96
1	5	95
2	5	122
3	5	113
4	5	100
1	6	102
2	6	96
3	6	116
4	6	98

Answer 1