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In: Statistics and Probability

Empirical probability: A statistical model was developed to predict whether passengers on the Titanic ship survived...

Empirical probability: A statistical model was developed to predict whether passengers on the Titanic ship survived base on their information such as age, number of siblings and spouses were on the ship, sex, the fare class, etc. The table below presents the predicted results getting from the model compared with the actual record:

	Predicted survived	Predicted not survived
Actually survived	2245	280
Actually not survived	157	1137

If picking a random passenger, what is the probability that the passenger survived according to the model or predicted by the model?

If picking a random passenger, what is the probability that the passenger did not survive according to the real record?

If a passenger was predicted as a survivor, what is the probability that the passenger actually survived according to the actual record?

If a passenger was predicted as a non-survivor, what is the probability that the passenger actually did not survive according to the actual record?

You are conducting a statistical study in order to estimate the average number of people who have contacted a patient with a positive test for the COVID-19 virus in the US over the last three weeks. Describe a detailed plan for collecting the data for your study. Your answer should be in paragraph form and be sure to include the following information:
1. The target population
2. The study variable(s); the variable(s)’s type (quantitative or qualitative); the variable(s)’s level of measurement (nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio)
3. The study sample:
  1. Your sample size
  2. Data collection method (survey, simulation, etc)
  3. Sample technique (clustered, stratified, simple random, etc)
  4. Possible errors if any

Expert Solution

Answer:-

Given That:-

Empirical probability: A statistical model was developed to predict whether passengers on the Titanic ship survived base on their information such as age, number of siblings and spouses were on the ship, sex, the fare class, etc.

a.If picking a random passenger, what is the probability that the passenger survived according to the model or predicted by the model?

Given,

If picking a random passenger, the probability that the passenger survived according to the model

= (2245 + 157) / (2245 + 2245 + 157 + 1137)

= 0.4153

a. If picking a random passenger, what is the probability that the passenger did not survive according to the real record?

If picking a random passenger, the probability that the passenger did not survive according to the real record

= (2245 + 280) / (2245 + 2245 + 157 + 1137)

= 0.4365

a. If a passenger was predicted as a survivor, what is the probability that the passenger actually survived according to the actual record?

If a passenger was predicted as a survivor, the probability that the passenger actually survived according to the actual record

= 2245 / (2245 + 157)

= 0.9346

a. If a passenger was predicted as a non-survivor, what is the probability that the passenger actually did not survive according to the actual record?

If a passenger was predicted as a non-survivor, the probability that the passenger actually did not survive according to the actual record

= 1137 / (280 + 1137)

= 0.8024

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orchestra answered 1 year ago

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