In: Finance
A covered interest parity is an arbitrage relation. Arbitrage
instruments are bought and sold in different markets to turn a
profit from the difference in rates between the two different
markets.
A covered interest parity means there is not enough difference
between the rates in the different markets to make a profit. The
forward rate that the trader would secure is only enough to off-set
the actual interest rate on the currency instead of
profiting.
It's considered an arbitrage relation because the trader has all of
the information available to them at the moment; spot interest
rates and the forward lock-in rates for however long.
An uncovered interest parity is attempting to forecast future spot
rates through the relationship between the currency interest rates
and the current spot rate. The trader cannot lock in any kind of
future rate, only make a projection based on their own
analysis.
The greatest difference in these type of instruments is that the
covered interest parity will have a locked in futures rate. An
uncovered interest parity is more of a speculation in that the
trader has to attempt to project where the future rate will end
up.