In: Economics
Explain the theory of uncovered and uncovered interest rate parity. If you borrow Euros at 0.5% interest, convert to dollars and deposit at 2.35% what future spot exchange rate would make uncovered interest rate parity hold?
This is a concept where there should be no arbitrage opportunity.
So, if no arbitrage should exist, then the currency with lower interest rate should appreciate, while the currency with high interest rate should depreciate.
The relationship between spot rate and forward rate is given as
Fp/b = Sp/b *(1+ip)/(1+ib)
Here p is Price currency
b is base currency
ip is interest rate in price currency
ib is interest rate in base currency
Fp/b is forward rate
Sp/b is spot rate
In this question interest rate in euro is 0.5%
Interest rate in USD is 2.35%
So, USD will depreciate, in future.
Spot USD/EUR = 0.91
Todays rate is 0.91 EUR is 1 USD
In future
Forward USD/EUR = Spot USD/EUR*(1+2.35%)/(1+0.5%)
Forward USD/EUR = Spot USD/EUR * 1.0184
= 0.9267