Question

You are a team of professional researchers from a prestigious fund management company. Your task is to identify the factors that may be crucial in forecasting stock returns of public listed companies.

ntroduction: State what are the issues considered by your team. Critically discuss at least 5 journal research papers that empirically tested different factors (macro or micro- economically or global influences) that have systematically influencing the returns of selected companies. Cite and critically discuss the influencing factors that these researchers have selected, their methodology and findings regarding the countries researched.

Answer 1

Identify the factors that may be crucial in forecasting stock returns of public listed companies.

Stock markets can be volatile, and the reasons particular stocks rise and fall can be complex. More often than not, stock prices are affected by a number of factors and events, some of which influence stock prices directly and others that do so indirectly.

Internal Developments Within Companies

Developments that can occur within companies will affect the price of its stock, including mergers and acquisitions, earnings reports, the suspension of dividends, the development or approval of a new innovative product, the hiring or firing of company executives and allegations of fraud or negligence. Stock price movements will be most drastic when these internal developments are unexpected.

Impact of World Events

Company stock prices and the stock market in general can be affected by world events such as war and civil unrest, natural disasters and terrorism. These influences can be direct and indirect, and they often occur in chain reactions. The social uncertainty and fear generated by the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, affected markets directly as they caused many investors in the United States to trade less and to focus on stocks and bonds with less risk.

Inflation and Interest Rates

One of the more predictable influences of the stock market are periodic adjustments of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve to combat inflation. When interest rates are raised, many investors sell or trade their higher risk stocks for government-backed securities such as bonds to take advantage of the higher interest rates they yield and to ensure that their investments are protected.

Impact of Exchange Rates

Foreign currency rates have a direct impact on the price and value of stocks in foreign countries, and changes in exchange rates will increase or decrease the cost of doing business in a country, which will affect the price of stocks of companies doing business abroad. While long-term movements in exchange rates are affected by fundamental market forces of supply and demand and purchase price parity, short-term movements are driven by news, events and futures trading and are difficult to predict.

Hype and Financial Reports

Stocks and the stock market also can be affected by hype about a company or the release of new products or services. Many people and organizations have an interest in promoting particular stocks and industries to increase the value of their own shares and profits, and positive financial reports and stock market newsletters, Internet blogs, press releases and news reports can build high expectations for the performance of companies, which will raise the price of their stocks. This can occur even when the hype has no foundation in truth; investors are wise to consider people's reaction to hype rather than analyze the merits of the positive promotion.