Question

What does the central limit theorem mean in plain words and what do we use it for?

Answer 1

The central limit theorem states that if you have a population with mean μ and standard deviation σ and take sufficiently large random samples from the population with replacement, then the distribution of the sample means will be approximately normally distributed. This will hold true regardless of whether the source population is normal or skewed, provided the sample size is sufficiently large (usually n > 30). If the population is normal, then the theorem holds true even for samples smaller than 30. In fact, this also holds true even if the population is binomial, provided that min(np, n(1-p))> 5, where n is the sample size and p is the probability of success in the population. This means that we can use the normal probability model to quantify uncertainty when making inferences about a population mean based on the sample mean.

For the random samples we take from the population, we can compute the mean of the sample means:

and the standard deviation of the sample means:

Before illustrating the use of the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) we will first illustrate the result. In order for the result of the CLT to hold, the sample must be sufficiently large (n > 30). Again, there are two exceptions to this. If the population is normal, then the result holds for samples of any size (i..e, the sampling distribution of the sample means will be approximately normal even for samples of size less than 30).

Key points to note:

• The central limit theorem (CLT) states that the distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution as the sample size gets larger.
• Sample sizes equal to or greater than 30 are considered sufficient for the CLT to hold.
• A key aspect of CLT is that the average of the sample means and standard deviations will equal the population mean and standard deviation.
• A sufficiently large sample size can predict the characteristics of a population accurately.

We use it because:

The central limit theorem tells us that no matter what the distribution of the population is, the shape of the sampling distribution will approach normality as the sample size (N) increases.

This is useful, as the research never knows which mean in the sampling distribution is the same as the population mean, but by selecting many random samples from a population the sample means will cluster together, allowing the research to make a very good estimate of the population mean.

Thus, as the sample size (N) increases the sampling error will decrease.

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