In: Finance
1.
A) Using the cost of carry model, the forward price of the asset is simply the Future value of the Asset
F0 = S0*exp(r*T)
Fair price of the 2 year forward contract on gold
F0 = 1715* exp(0.01*2)
= 1749.65
So, Fair price of forward = $1749.65 / ounce
b) Forward price (formula) for an index that provides a dividend yield of q, with a current market price of S0 , risk-free rate r (annual rate with continuous compounding), and time to maturity of T is given as
F0 = S0*exp((r-q)*T) - assuming that yield q is continuously compounded
F0 = S0*exp(r*T)/(1+q)^T - assuming that yield q is annually compounded
So, fair price for a two-year forward contract
F0 = 2868*exp((0.01-0.02)*2) = 2811.21 using continuous compounded yield
F0 = 2868*exp(0.01*2)/(1.02)^2 = 2812.32 using Annually compounded yield
c) The Upper Bound of the Price of a consumption asset is given by
F0 = (S0+U)*exp(r*T) and the lower bound can be taken to be 0 (depending upon the convenience yield of the consumption asset)
So, F0 = (25+5)*exp(0.01*1) = 30.30151 or $30.30/barrel
So, fair price range is $0 < F0 < $30.30151/barrel
Now,
If the one-year forward contract price is $50 per barrel, there is an arbitrage opportunity
Arbitrage steps
1 Buy 1 barrel of Crude oil spot at $25 and pay the storage cost of $5/barrel per year.
Borrow the amount of $30 to do the same. at 1% . Repayment amount = $30.30
2. Simultaneously, sell the forward contract for 1 barrel of crude oil at $50
3. After one year, sell the crude oil barrel using forwards at $50 , repay the loan of $30.30 and take the arbitrage profit of $19.70 per barrel