In: Finance
Describe monetary policy and its influence on financial institutions and markets. Your answer should focus on recent Federal Reserve activity (especially as associated with the COVID-19).
The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented actions to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. households and businesses. These measures include cutting the Fed’s policy rate to the zero lower bound, purchasing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to promote market functioning, and establishing several liquidity and credit facilities.
December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of an outbreak of a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China. The outbreak was later attributed to a novel coronavirus (COVID-19 is an acronym for the disease caused by this virus). Cases increased in China and then began to spread internationally in January and February. A sharp increase in global confirmed cases was noted in March, with the WHO declaring COVID-19 a global pandemic on March 11.In the United States, the first case was reported on January 21, with cases rising rapidly thereafter and tallying the highest confirmed case count of any country as of March 26.
The coronavirus’s high transmissibility and rapid spread spurred
public health experts to advocate for increasingly aggressive
countermeasures, which governments then implemented. Social
distancing rules imposed restrictions on work and movements deemed
nonessential, and advisories and restrictions limited travel
between countries and, sometimes, within countries.
Consequent to these actions, activities and services requiring
face-to-face transactions and large congregations of people
declined significantly. Firms in the transportation, retail, and
services sectors were especially affected, but productivity
suffered more generally as employees got sick and supply chains
were disrupted. Many individuals lost their jobs, were forced to
reduce spending, and faced financial hardship.
In the United States, in particular, initial claims, which reflect
the number of workers filing for unemployment insurance for the
first time, totaled an unprecedented 16.8 million during the three
weeks ending on April 4. Alongside the loss of jobs, consumer
confidence plunged and the Weekly Economic Index fell to a level
not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. In the New York, New
Jersey, and Connecticut area (an epicenter of the outbreak), about
40 percent of service firms and 30 percent of manufacturing firms
reduced payroll staff.
As revenues plummeted and firms ran low on cash, their borrowing
needs increased. Firms drew down their lines of credit from banks
and attempted to borrow in short-term funding markets. Unusually
high funding needs and pullbacks by key suppliers of short-term
funds (such as prime money market funds) led to higher rates and
stressed markets, prompting the Fed to step in, as described below.
Costs for borrowing longer term in corporate bond markets also
increased markedly, especially for lower-rated issuers and issuers
directly affected by social distancing measures.
As coronavirus cases spread outside China, global asset prices
dropped. The S&P 500 index declined steeply, triggering
market-wide circuit-breakers that halted trading three times in
March. By March 23, the stock market had fallen 34 percent from its
February 2020 high. Investors sought the safety of U.S. government
bonds, pushing yields to record lows. Measures of implied
volatility rose sharply, indicating high uncertainty about the
future. Typical relationships in financial markets broke down, such
as those between stock prices and Treasury yields, amid heightened
illiquidity in the Treasury market and forced selling by leveraged
hedge funds.
The Fed’s Response
The Fed employed both conventional and unconventional policy tools
to address the economic and financial disruptions caused by the
pandemic. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) quickly cut the
target range for the federal (fed) funds rate to the zero lower
bound, citing risks to economic activity from the coronavirus (see
chart below). The FOMC lowered the target range by 50 basis points
on March 3 and an additional 100 basis points on March 15. Both
changes occurred between scheduled meetings, with the latter being
the first on a weekend since the policy of announcing rate changes
started in 1994. Reductions in the Fed’s policy rate tend to lower
interest rates more broadly (such as for mortgage rates), spurring
borrowing and spending by both consumers and businesses.
Conclusion
The economic and financial disruptions
precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented
response by the Fed. The Fed applied its usual tools to mitigate
the effects, cutting its policy rates and providing liquidity to
the banking system, as well as tools rarely used or newly created,
including several liquidity and credit facilities. But because the
COVID-19 pandemic is fundamentally a health crisis, it ultimately
requires a medical resolution. Nonetheless, the Fed’s policy
actions are important for alleviating the economic fallout until
such a resolution is found and for facilitating the restart of the
economy thereafter.
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