Question

In: Finance

You have a portfolio made up of the following three assets with known means, standard deviations,...

  1. You have a portfolio made up of the following three assets with known means, standard deviations, and correlations of monthly returns:

monthly

return

Correlation

Matrix

Weight

Asset

mean

std dev

Asset

Apple

Amazon

CVS

50%

Apple

3.06%

8.1%

Apple

1

30%

Amazon

2.84%

7.9%

Amazon

0.39

1

20%

CVS

0.42%

8.4%

CVS

0.03

0.31

1

  1. What is the expected monthly return on this portfolio?
  2. What is the monthly portfolio standard deviation?
  3. What is the probability that this portfolio will have a negative return in one month?
  4. What is the probability that this portfolio will have a return greater than 4% in a month?
  5. Over one year, what is the probability that the average of the monthly returns for this portfolio will be negative?

Solutions

Expert Solution

R1 Expected Return of Apple 3.06 %
R2 Expected Return of Amazon 2.84 %
R3 Expected Return of CVS 0.42 %
S1 Standard Deviation of Apple 8.1 %
S2 Standard Deviation of Amazon 7.9 %
S3 Standard Deviation of CVS 8.4 %
Corr(1,2) Correlation of Apple and Amazon 0.39
Corr(1,3) Correlation of Apple and CVS 0.03
Corr(2,3) Correlation of Amazon and CVS 0.31
Covariance(1,2) =Correlation(1,2)*Standard Deviation of 1 * Standard Deviation of 2
Cov(1,2)=Corr(1,2)*S1*S2 Covariance of Apple and Amazon 24.9561 %%
Cov(1,3)=Corr(1,3)*S1*S3 Covariance of Apple and CVS 2.0412 %%
Cov(2,3)=Corr(2,3)*S2*S3 Covariance of Amazon and CVS 20.5716 %%
w1 Weight of Apple in the Portfolio 0.5
w2 Weight of Amazon in the Portfolio 0.3
w3 Weight of CVS in the Portfolio 0.2
Expected Portfolio Return =w1*R1+w2*R2+w3*R3
Rp=w1*R1+w2*R2+w3*R3 Expected Portfolio Return = 2.466 %
a) Expected Monthly Return of Portfolio 2.47%
Portfolio Variance =(w1^2)*(S1^2)+(w2^2)*(S2^2)+(w3^2)*(S3^2)+2*w1*w2^Cov(1,2)+2*w1*w3^Cov(1,3)+2*w2*w3^Cov(2,3)
Vp Portfolio Variance 35.20546 %%
Sp=SQRT(Vp) Portfolio Standard Deviation=Square Root (Portfolio Variance)
Sp=SQRT(Vp) Portfolio Standard Deviation= 5.933419 %
b) Portfolio Standard Deviation= 5.9%
c) Negative Return in one month
Return Less than Zero
X< or =0
Refering to "Cumulative Area Under Standard Normal Distribution" Table
D= (X-Mean)/ Std Deviation=(0-2.47)/5.9= -0.41864
For D Value =-0.42
N(d)=0.3372
Probability of return being Negative 0.3372
Probability of return being Negative 33.72%
d) Return Greater than 4%
X>or =4%
Refering to "Cumulative Area Under Standard Normal Distribution" Table
D= (X-Mean)/ Std Deviation=(4-2.47)/5.9= 0.259322
For D Value =-0.26
N(d)=0.6026
Probability of return being Less than 4% 0.6026
Probability of return being Greater than 4%

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