Question

The research team in your marketing department has some preliminary results for the upcoming launch of your new product. They believe that there is a 90% chance that the launch of your new product will be successful if the state of the economy is in good health. Conversely, they believe that there is only a 30% chance that the launch will be successful if the economy is not in good health. Past indicators suggest that the probability that the economy will be in good health (during the launch period) is 80%.

1) What is the probability that the product launch will be successful and the economy will be in good health?
a) 0.90 b) 0.72 c) 0.80 d) 0.92

2) What is the probability that the product launch will not be successful and the economy will not be in good health?
a) 0.14 b) 0.63 c) 0.70 d) 0.20

3) What is the probability that the product launch will be successful? a) 0.78 b) 0.90 c) 0.80 d) 0.86

4) Given that the launch was successful, what is the probability that the economy was in good health?
a) 0.90 b) 0.72 c) 0.80 d) 0.92

5) Given that the launch was not successful, what is the probability that the economy was in good health?
a) 0.20 b) 0.30 c) 0.36 d) 0.08

6) Given that the economy is in good health, what is the probability that the launch of your product will not be successful?
a) 0.10 b) 0.30 c) 0.20 d) 0.36

Answer 1

Solution:

We are given:

  

Therefore, we have the following tabular information:

	Success	Not Success	Total
Good Health	0.72	0.22-0.14=0.08	0.8
Not Good Health	0.78-0.72=0.06	0.14	0.2
Total	0.78	1-0.78=0.22	1

1) What is the probability that the product launch will be successful and the economy will be in good health?

Answer: 0.72

2) What is the probability that the product launch will not be successful and the economy will not be in good health?

Answer: a) 0.14

3) What is the probability that the product launch will be successful?

Answer: a) 0.78

4) Given that the launch was successful, what is the probability that the economy was in good health?

Answer:d) 0.92

5) Given that the launch was not successful, what is the probability that the economy was in good health?

Answer: c) 0.36

6) Given that the economy is in good health, what is the probability that the launch of your product will not be successful?

Answer: a) 0.10