Question
In: Statistics and Probability
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14 15 10 17 15 Using the...
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.
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Solutions
Expert Solution
Mean absolute error = 3.8
Mean squared error = 19.0
Mean absolute percentage error = 0.28
What is the forecast for week 7?
week 7 = 15
Formula Reference:
orchestra answered 1 year agoRelated Solutions
Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14 17 12 18 15 Calculate the...
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
14
17
12
18
15
Calculate the measures of forecast error using the naive (most
recent value) method and the average of historical data (to 2
decimals).
Naive method
Historical data
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 14...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
14
16
11
17
15
Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for
the next week, compute the following measures of forecast
accuracy:
Mean absolute error (MAE)
Mean squared error (MSE)
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Using the average of all the historical data as a forecast for
the next period, compute the same three values. Round your answers
to two decimal...
Periods 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 12% 14% 15% 16% 18%...
Periods
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
12%
14%
15%
16%
18%
20%
1
0.990
0.980
0.971
0.962
0.952
0.943
0.935
0.926
0.917
0.909
0.893
0.877
0.870
0.862
0.847
0.833
2
0.980
0.961
0.943
0.925
0.907
0.890
0.873
0.857
0.842
0.826
0.797
0.769
0.756
0.743
0.718
0.694
3
0.971
0.942
0.915
0.889
0.864
0.840
0.816
0.794
0.772
0.751
0.712
0.675
0.658
0.641
0.609
0.579
4
0.961
0.924
0.888
0.855
0.823
0.792
0.763
0.735
0.708
0.683
0.636...
year X Y 1 10% 15% 2 24% 25% 3 10% 14% 4 -17% -22% 5...
year
X
Y
1
10%
15%
2
24%
25%
3
10%
14%
4
-17%
-22%
5
105
16%
calculate the arithmetic average returns variance and standard
deviation
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
a. Use a smoothing constant of a = 0.4 to
compute the MSE (to 2 decimals).
(___)
2.Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
19
13
17
12
17
15
b. Develop the three-week moving average
forecasts for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week
7 (to 2 decimals if...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
16
10
17
15
(a) Construct a time series plot.
What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to
follow a horizontal pattern.
(b) Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this
time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
12
3
16
4
10
15.33
5
17
12.67
6
15
14.33...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
17
11
17
15
Calculate the measures of forecast error using the naive (most
recent value) method and the average of historical data (to 2
decimals).
Naive method
Historical data
Mean absolute error
Mean squared error
Mean absolute percentage error
Top of Form
Consider the following time series
data.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Value
23
14
19
10
18...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 12...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
12
16
10
17
15
Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)
Week
Time Series
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
12
3
16
4
10
5
17
6
15
Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
MSE =
What is the forecast for week 7?
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
Value
18
13
17
12
17
15
a. develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 (to 2 decimals if
necessary).
b. use = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing forecasts for
the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7 (to 2
decimals).
c. use a smoothing constant of =0.4 to compute the MSE...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13...
Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value
18 13 17 12 17 15 a. Which of the following is a correct time
series plot for this data? What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop the three-week moving average forecasts for this time
series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week (to 2 decimals if
necessary). MSE The forecast for week c. Use to compute the
exponential smoothing forecasts for the...
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