In: Accounting
In class, I discussed the use of VIX-related options, such as
UVXY, as a hedge with respect to net income reporting by
corporations. I referred to a "VIX beta."
Write, carefully, about one page
Beta is a measure of risk commonly used to compare the volatility of stocks, mutual funds, or ETFs to that of the overall market. The S&P 500 Index is the base for calculating beta with a value of 1.0. Securities with betas below 1 have historically been less volatile than the market. While securities with betas above 1, have historically been more volatile than the market. The beta is calculated using data over a 5-year period.
Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions.
Volatility can be measured using two different methods. First is based on performing statistical calculations on the historical prices over a specific time period. This process involves computing various statistical numbers, like mean (average), variance and finally the standard deviation on the historical price data sets. The resulting value of standard deviation is a measure of risk or volatility. In spreadsheet programs like MS Excel, it can be directly computed using the STDEVP() function applied on the range of stock prices. However, standard deviation method is based on lots of assumptions and may not be an accurate measure of volatility. Since it is based on past prices, the resulting figure is called “realized volatility” or "historical volatility (HV)." To predict future volatility for the next X months, a commonly followed approach is to calculate it for the past recent X months and expect that the same pattern will follow.
The second method to measure volatility involves inferring its value as implied by option prices. Options are derivative instruments whose price depends upon the probability of a particular stock’s current price moving enough to reach a particular level (called the strike price or exercise price). For example, say IBM stock is currently trading at a price of $151 per share. There is a call option on IBM with a strike price of $160 and has one month to expiry. The price of such a call option will depend upon the market perceived probability of IBM stock price moving from current level of $151 to above the strike price of $160 within the one month remaining to expiry. Since the possibility of such price moves happening within the given time frame are represented by the volatility factor, various option pricing methods (like Black Scholes model) include volatility as an integral input parameter. Since option prices are available in the open market, they can be used to derive the volatility of the underlying security (IBM stock in this case). Such volatility, as implied by or inferred from market prices, is called forward looking “implied volatility (IV).”
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