Question

effect the economy has on retail sales

Answer 1

Retail is how producers of goods and services get their products to the consumer. Retailers often get their goods directly from the manufacturer. That is when a commodity becomes a finished product. Retailers can also buy products from a middleman, known as a wholesaler or distributor. The wholesaling company consolidates the products from around the world. It repackages them for easier marketing and distribution. Retailers are the last stop on the supply chain before the products end up in your shopping cart.

In 2017, the U.S. retail industry generated $1.14 trillion in value-added. That’s 5.9 percent of U.S. gross domestic product. The largest category within retail is automotive, at $212 billion. Grocery stores are $167 billion and general merchandise is $161 billion. Since retailing provides a way for products to get to consumers, it also supports the $1.15 trillion wholesaling industry. It contributes to the $2.2 trillion U.S. manufacturing industry.

Retailers create 4.8 million jobs. Many of these are entry-level positions, paying around $10 an hour. Despite the low pay, they provide solid training on dealing with the public. These positions also teach employees math skills. The most important time of the year in retailing is the holiday shopping season. It starts the day after Thanksgiving. Almost 20 percent of annual retail sales occur between Black Friday and Christmas. This season includes Cyber Monday, the biggest day of the year for online sales. It also includes Green Monday. It's the last day to order online to make sure you receive your gifts before Christmas.

Retail sales are an important economic indicator because consumer spending drives much of our economy. Think of all of the people and companies involved in producing, distributing, and selling the goods you use on a daily basis like food, clothes, fuel, and so on. When consumers open their pocket books, the economy tends to hum along. Retail shelves empty and orders placed for replacement merchandise. Plants make more widgets and order raw material for even more.

However, if consumers feel uncertain about their financial future and decide to hold off buying new refrigerators or blue jeans, the economy slows down. This is why politicians have resorted to tax rebates to give the economy a boost. By putting cash in consumers’ hands, they hoped to spend their way out of a recession. On the 12th of every month, the Census Bureau releases the Retail Sales Index, which is a measure of retail sales from the previous month as determined by a sampling of stores both large and small across the country. Although subject to future revision, the market closely watches this number as an indicator of the nation’s economy.

The report actually lists two numbers. The first is Retail Sales and the second number is Retail Sales Ex-Auto or without automobile sales included. The reason is auto sales can skew the overall number that they are big-ticket items and subject to seasonal fluctuations. The number crunchers on Wall Street come to their own conclusions before the Census Bureau issues the report and that number is usually close. However, if the “street consensus” and the actual report differ significantly, look for the market to react abruptly. The market does not like surprises.