What we are trying to do is predict NBA playoff victories for any given team (dependent...

What we are trying to do is predict NBA playoff victories for any given team (dependent variable) using advanced metrics. The columns that are NOT Playoff Wins are the independent variables. There are 12 of them. Your job is to simply provide a good model from a set of the advanced metrics (independent variables). The model must include at least six independent variables.



Dependent Variable
Playoff Wins	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	ASTRatio	OREB%	DREB%	REB%	TOV%	eFG%	TS%	PACE
7	111.6	109	64.8	1.8	18.7	27.8	74.1	51.7	14.4	53.2	57.4	102.59
7	112.1	108.1	65.3	2.04	19.3	30.8	74.4	52.4	13.6	52.7	55.8	98.49
6	114.9	110.1	54.1	1.59	15.9	26.9	70	48.1	13.5	54.2	58.1	98.39
5	107.4	103	58.6	1.53	17.1	25.6	75.6	50.9	15.2	52.7	56.4	96.58
5	108.5	103.9	66.3	1.64	19.1	28.6	73.6	52	16.3	53.5	56.8	100.75
5	108.5	107.4	62.7	1.79	19	24	72.6	49.4	14.5	54.1	57.3	101.48
4	113	105.3	59	1.82	17.9	27.4	72.5	50.2	13.5	53.9	57.5	98.02
10	113.5	104.9	60.1	1.88	18.3	25	75.7	51.6	13.3	55	58.3	103.57
8	113.7	109.5	54.4	1.66	16.6	30.8	73.9	52.6	13.7	52.8	56.8	99.96
11	106.8	103.2	58.6	1.6	17	26.3	73.9	50.4	14.4	51.8	55.2	96.75
11	114.1	105.7	55.7	1.56	16.4	25.4	75	50.3	14.1	55.1	59	98.02
16	112.6	106.8	60.3	1.81	18.2	26.5	72.6	50.2	13.8	54.3	57.9	100.52
14	115	108.6	66.8	2.06	20.4	25.7	72.7	50.5	13.9	56.5	59.6	101.73
12	112	111.1	57.9	1.7	17.5	24.3	73	49.2	13.9	54.7	58.4	98.72
16	112.8	106.8	68.5	1.9	20.9	24.3	71.2	49.7	15.3	56.9	60.3	100.35
0	102.7	108.2	63.1	1.43	17.4	27.3	70.9	49	16.7	50.1	53.9	99.07
0	103.6	110.1	56.6	1.29	15.9	24.1	71.6	48.3	16.2	50.7	55.1	101.75
0	103.7	110.3	58	1.67	16.8	26.7	72.6	49.1	13.7	48.9	52.4	96.9
2	104.5	105.2	62.1	1.5	17.4	28.2	71.7	50.2	16	50.4	54.1	97.76
0	104.7	106.8	58.2	1.77	17.1	22.8	72.8	48	12.9	50.4	53.9	98.56
0	104.7	107.7	57.4	1.75	16.8	21.6	73.3	46.5	12.7	50.5	54.1	93.11
0	105.3	106.7	53	1.78	16.1	28.6	77.5	51.9	12.3	49.2	52.1	95.52
0	105.3	112	53.2	1.38	15.6	28.4	71.7	49.4	15.3	50.1	53.7	99.26
0	106.1	111.3	49.1	1.27	14.4	29.9	71.8	50.3	15.2	49.3	53.8	100.85
2	106.5	106.2	58.4	1.66	16.8	31.1	73.3	51.9	14	48.7	53	96.02
0	106.6	110.8	59.4	1.54	17.3	25.8	72.3	49.2	15.2	51.6	55.6	95.42
2	107	106.5	58.4	1.65	16.5	29.5	73.1	50.7	13.7	49.1	53.5	92.84
0	107.1	110.7	55.1	1.57	16.3	30.5	69.8	50	14.3	49.6	53.4	96.63
0	107.4	106.4	54.4	1.58	16.3	28.4	71.8	49.9	14	51.2	54.1	95.51
1	107.9	107.1	53.2	1.4	15.5	32.3	74.2	52.8	15.2	50	54	98.18
0	107.9	108.1	57.2	1.63	17.2	25.5	71.3	48.8	14.1	51.6	55.8	96.59
0	108.4	108.4	61.1	2.01	17.6	24.7	74.9	49.6	11.9	50.1	54.7	95.92
2	108.5	108.7	62.4	1.73	18.5	26	70.6	48.7	14.6	52.7	56.5	94.99
4	109	104.7	54.4	1.48	16.2	27	74.3	51.4	14.8	52.6	56.3	92.09
0	109.4	110	53.4	1.54	16	26.9	72	49.6	13.9	52	55.9	97.38
0	110	110.9	60	1.69	17.7	30.9	71	50.7	14.6	51.1	55.5	95.48
8	110.3	102.9	60.6	1.77	18.1	28.2	73	51.1	14.1	52.4	56.4	94.86
7	110.4	108.8	57.7	1.68	17.6	28.6	71.6	50.1	14.3	52.8	56.4	97.94
9	110.6	108	65.3	1.9	18.8	25.9	70.5	48.5	13.6	52.5	56.7	97.21
4	111.4	107.1	47.2	1.46	14.5	29.1	71.7	50.5	13.2	51.7	56.1	95.41
3	111.8	107.5	57	1.74	17.2	25.6	73.3	50.1	13.3	53.7	57.4	96.77
0	112.2	111.7	61.5	1.69	18.2	31.4	75.3	53.2	15	53	56.8	99.18
13	112.8	109.7	56.7	1.66	17.1	26.4	72.2	49.9	14	54.7	58	96.74
6	114.1	108.4	62.6	1.67	18.1	28.1	71.7	49.9	15	54.5	58.3	100.55
16	114.8	103.4	70.5	2.06	21.2	27.2	70.9	50.4	14.6	56.3	59.7	100.37

Expert Solution

The regression equation is:

Playoff Wins = -61.7421 - 0.3672*DefRtg + 4.5193*AST/TO - 0.2395*ASTRatio + 0.1604*OREB% + 1.4905*eFG% + 0.3639*TS%

The final model is:

	R²	0.708
	Adjusted R²	0.662
	R	0.841
	Std. Error	2.986
	n	45
	k	6
	Dep. Var.	Playoff Wins

ANOVA table
Source	SS	df	MS	F	p-value
Regression	820.4074	6	136.7346	15.34	7.76E-09
Residual	338.7926	38	8.9156
Total	1,159.2000	44


Regression output				confidence interval
variables	coefficients	std. error	t (df=38)	p-value	95% lower	95% upper
Intercept	-61.7421
DefRtg	-0.3672	0.1941	-1.891	.0662	-0.7602	0.0258
AST/TO	4.5193	3.9752	1.137	.2627	-3.5282	12.5667
ASTRatio	-0.2395	0.5883	-0.407	.6862	-1.4304	0.9514
OREB%	0.1604	0.1982	0.810	.4232	-0.2407	0.5616
eFG%	1.4905	1.1789	1.264	.2138	-0.8961	3.8770
TS%	0.3639	1.1906	0.306	.7615	-2.0463	2.7741

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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