Question

PROBABILITY

6.

6A.

A certain disease has an incidence rate of 0.5%. If the false negative rate is 4% and the false positive rate is 2%, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease.

   

Give your answer accurate to at least 3 decimal places

6B.

A bag contains 3 gold marbles, 8 silver marbles, and 26 black marbles. The rules of the game are as follows: You randomly select one marble from the bag. If it is gold, you win $5, if it is silver, you win $3. If it costs $1 to play, what is your expected profit or loss if you play this game?

$

6C.

The PTO is selling raffle tickets to raise money for classroom supplies. A raffle ticket costs $2. There is 1 winning ticket out of the 180 tickets sold. The winner gets a prize worth $78. Round your answers to the nearest cent.

What is the expected value (to you) of one raffle ticket? $

Calculate the expected value (to you) if you purchase 12 raffle tickets. $

What is the expected value (to the PTO) of one raffle ticket? $

If the PTO sells all 180 raffle tickets, how much money can they expect to raise for the classroom supplies? $

6D.

A company estimates that 0.8% of their products will fail after the original warranty period but within 2 years of the purchase, with a replacement cost of $450.

If they offer a 2 year extended warranty for $53, what is the company's expected value of each warranty sold?

$

Answer 1