In: Statistics and Probability
Suppose a life insurance company sells a $190,000 one-year term life insurance policy to a 24-year-old female for $200. The probability that the female survives the year is .999461. Compute and interpret the expected value of this policy to the insurance company.
Expected value of this policy to the insurance company = Expected profit - Expected loss
where Expected profit = premium recieved*probability of survival = $200*0.999461 = $199.8922
and Expected loss = premium to be paid by customer*(1 - probability of survival)
so, Expected loss = $190000*(1-0.999461) = $102.41
so, the Expected value = $199.8922 - $102.41 = $97.4822