TI have provided two "mystery" time series below. Each is a real world, quarterly time series,...

TI have provided two "mystery" time series below. Each is a real world, quarterly time series, that has been transformed in some way so that you cannot discover (easily) its true identity. Your asignment is to create a 1-year (4-quarter) forecast for each series. You can use any method or combination of methods that you feel is best.

Forecast should be submitted as a spreadsheet.

Series X
91.49754
113.0043
135.4433
152.3375
102.7495
114.6203
136.7652
161.4187
115.3307
128.6314
160.2941
181.7292
110.4326
122.5296
143.1325
172.6343
104.6544
137.3593
168.622
164.4999
113.6247
123.6196
160.6547
177.0142
115.5151
122.5374
167.7764
195.3274
120.1086
137.2762
167.5343
193.2065
130.2599
135.7238
169.8141
174.7266
111.5293
134.2628
157.5919
178.2759
129.0033
136.6669
159.8415
174.9902
104.7216
121.0746
141.6719
153.4197
103.6806
125.0076
141.2849
164.4615
121.1125
134.0084
162.7654
186.1526
132.7394
142.2245
163.9436
181.3076
125.8554
141.4387
162.7154
176.054
120.2698
133.3783
159.7422
129.9537
59.98472
80.65274
110.7216
128.639
94.55294
105.6408
116.0305
116.9819

	Series Y
1.1	4,963.6
1.2	5,003.0
1.3	5,006.3
1.4	5,016.4
2.1	5,061.0
2.2	5,123.5
2.3	5,184.6
2.4	5,249.4
3.1	5,275.9
3.2	5,363.6
3.3	5,468.9
3.4	5,534.4
4.1	5,584.2
4.2	5,651.7
4.3	5,758.3
4.4	5,829.7
5.1	5,958.9
5.2	6,018.6
5.3	6,075.4
5.4	6,227.6
6.1	6,328.1
6.2	6,382.8
6.3	6,427.6
6.4	6,523.4
7.1	6,600.5
7.2	6,554.9
7.3	6,550.6
7.4	6,477.4
8.1	6,300.5
8.2	6,278.2
8.3	6,251.3
8.4	6,271.4
9.1	6,301.6
9.2	6,399.8
9.3	6,454.5
9.4	6,477.0

Expert Solution

X	Y
91.49754	4,963.60
113.0043	5,003.00
135.4433	5,006.30
152.3375	5,016.40
102.7495	5,061.00
114.6203	5,123.50
136.7652	5,184.60
161.4187	5,249.40
115.3307	5,275.90
128.6314	5,363.60
160.2941	5,468.90
181.7292	5,534.40
110.4326	5,584.20
122.5296	5,651.70
143.1325	5,758.30
172.6343	5,829.70
104.6544	5,958.90
137.3593	6,018.60
168.622	6,075.40
164.4999	6,227.60
113.6247	6,328.10
123.6196	6,382.80
160.6547	6,427.60
177.0142	6,523.40
115.5151	6,600.50
122.5374	6,554.90
167.7764	6,550.60
195.3274	6,477.40
120.1086	6,300.50
137.2762	6,278.20
167.5343	6,251.30
193.2065	6,271.40
130.2599	6,301.60
135.7238	6,399.80
169.8141	6,454.50
174.7266	6,477.00
111.5293	6,408.23
134.2628	6,434.88
157.5919	6,443.65
178.2759	6,440.94
129.0033
136.6669
159.8415
174.9902
104.7216
121.0746
141.6719
153.4197
103.6806
125.0076
141.2849
164.4615
121.1125
134.0084
162.7654
186.1526
132.7394
142.2245
163.9436
181.3076
125.8554
141.4387
162.7154
176.054
120.2698
133.3783
159.7422
129.9537
59.98472
80.65274
110.7216
128.639
94.55294
105.6408
116.0305
116.9819
108.301535
111.7386838
113.2631547
112.5713184

The numbers highlighted in RED are the forecasted ones and calculated using a simple excel average formula.

Both the series are forecasted by using a moving average method. Each successive entry is calculated by taking the average of the last 4 quarters, in both the series.

For example: The first forecasted entry in Series X i.e. 108.30 is the average of (94.55 + 105.64 + 116.03 + 116.98) last 4 quaters. The next entry will be the average of the 4 preceding quarters that will also include the first forecast we calculated.

In a similar fashion, forecasts for Series Y are calculated.

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