Question

Week 4 Discussion

Keep your eyes and ears open as you read or listen to the news this week. Find/discover an example of statistics & probability in the news. Was it explained well, or poorly? What is the context? Do you think anything about the article is misleading? Can you make any inferences based on it?

Do you think that the statistics in the article would convince the reader that we are all facing a serious problem with our environment? Explain why or why not by referencing examples from the article.

Answer 1

The news article, which I came across can be found using the following link, posted by GLOBAL HEALTH NEWS WIRE, Washington D.C on 21.07.2020:

https://globalhealthnewswire.com/mental/2020/07/21/study-estimates-impact-of-covid-19-pandemic-on-u-k-mental-health-after-first-month-of-lockdown

Titled: Study estimates impact of covid-19 pandemic on u.k. mental health after first month of lockdown

1. Yes, It is explained well. It explains all the relevant changes in the variables, which are statistically significant. Also, discussing the much needed causes and reforms to overcome them.
2. The context is the decline in the Mental Health conditions, across the population in United Kingdom, when compared between the periods of pre-lockdown and post-lockdown, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
3. No, most of the information published is clear and NOT misleading. However, I think in some cases, like the changes in the mental health score among the Ethnic groups, the sample size were too small to give us any proper conclusions (acknowledged in the publication). Again, there might have been other factors like violence in the family, e.t.c which might have contributed to the decline, but not incorporated in the research study Finally, their results were simply based upon the scores, which they computed, using the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) questionnaire. In that case, better statistical models could have provided us with a more significant and precise results, based upon the study population
4. The Inferences which I can make is that the research group, who had undertaken this study could have implemented other statistical tools such as: Multivariate Regression Analysis to find out, which is the most significant factor contributing to the decline of the mental health, ANOVA across the many age groups of the population, which would provide more precise conclusions. Finally, some Predictive Models using Time Series Models to predict how this decline would look like in the coming weeks and months. All of these, would make the results much more reliable as well as robust
5. Yes, the statistics in the article would convince any reader that we are all facing a serious problem with our environment because due to the rapid decline of the mental health conditions, we are becoming unstable, irritated and depressed.
6. Why: As the article claims that the unemployment rate goes up ,due to which people are losing track of the things they care about and the things they should not do. For example, people who are suffering here, may forget to water their plants for weeks, and the plants might die because of that. Many people may just start killing other innocent animals, to get rid of their frustration and boredom. Smoking habits may go up, thus increasing the level of air pollution. However, we may also add that due to enforced LOCKDOWN and minimal interaction between humans and nature. Nature is also flowering to it's best, during this time without any resistance. Wild Animals were seen on the streets of the country and skies have cleared up to it's maximum possible extent, giving us a fresher air to breathe in. Therefore, this has a silver lining too...